Bitcoin rose to $65,817.34 on July 21, gaining 3.06% in 24 hours and about 5% over the past week to reach a two-week high. Ether climbed to $1,933.51, up 4.64% on the day and 8% for the week. XRP traded at $1.13 and SOL at $78.44, with gains of 4.61% and 3.80%, respectively.
Risk appetite improved alongside steady ETF inflows
The rebound did not start inside crypto. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2% in a single day, led by Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Benchmark indexes in South Korea and Taiwan each gained about 4%, while a Chinese technology stock index jumped about 7% after state-backed buying entered the market. Risk sentiment, which had been dragged down the previous week by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling into a bear market, shifted quickly.
Flows also improved. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows for five straight trading sessions, with the cumulative total above $600 million. The article described that stretch as the strongest run of institutional buying since mid-July. Even so, it stopped short of calling it a full trend reversal. Citigroup said in a report last week that institutional demand had not truly returned.
BTSE chief operating officer Jeff Mei offered a view that the article presented as close to the market consensus. Given the macro uncertainty hanging over markets, he said current Bitcoin and Ether prices look low but reasonable. Traders expect rates to stay unchanged, while still looking for more signals on the policy path later this year. In the article's framing, current buying is effectively a bet that nothing breaks over the next two weeks.
Deribit implied volatility fell back below 40%
Options data painted a more cautious picture. According to the source, Deribit showed at-the-money implied volatility for July 31 expiry at 34.06%, with 35-delta call IV at 33.03% and put IV at 32.65%. One-week and one-month implied volatility stood at 33% and 34%, both under 40%.
Implied volatility measures what the market is willing to pay for future movement. Lower readings suggest traders expect a quieter range-bound stretch. The issue, as the article noted, is the historical record attached to this zone.
The Bitcoin Volatility Index, or BVIV, was moving in the 34% to 38% range and sitting below both its 30-day and 200-day moving averages. The article listed three earlier cases over the past year when BVIV moved into that range and said the follow-through was unfavorable each time:
- Late May 2026: after BVIV entered the zone, Bitcoin fell from $74,000 to below $60,000 in less than a week.
- Early February 2026: the same pattern appeared before another sharp downside move.
- October: during the correction after Bitcoin set an all-time high, BVIV moved into the same zone first.
The article was explicit on one point: low implied volatility is not directional by itself. It only suggests the market may be underpricing the size of future moves. It does not say whether price will break up or down. The three bearish examples may reflect their own macro backdrop rather than any predictive power in low IV alone.
July hike pricing fell from 46.5% to around 15%
This week's U.S. calendar is relatively light. The article said the main items are Thursday's initial jobless claims data, followed later in the week by flash July manufacturing and services PMI readings and new home sales. The Federal Reserve is already in its blackout period ahead of the July 28-29 meeting, which will not include updated economic projections or a dot plot.
The more important change over the past two weeks, according to the report, has come from rate pricing. Before the June CPI release on July 13, markets had pushed the implied probability of a July rate hike as high as 46.5%. CME FedWatch now shows roughly an 86.7% probability that rates will stay unchanged, while the chance of a hike has compressed to around 15%. The article described that repricing as a real macro cushion behind Bitcoin's return above $65,000 within two weeks.
Oil, the dollar and leverage remain key variables
Geopolitical tension is still part of the setup. Brent crude briefly traded above $90 on Monday before slipping about 1% on Tuesday to around $88.58 a barrel. The article said signals of renewed U.S.-Iran talks temporarily capped the move, while the dollar index consolidated near 100.7. Those two variables, it argued, will shape how the low-volatility regime eventually breaks.
The source laid out two scenarios:
- Bullish case: if oil retreats, PMI data come in moderate and the dollar weakens, Bitcoin could break out of its recent range and trigger short covering. In that setup, $65,500 turning from resistance into support would be the first confirmation point.
- Bearish case: if tensions escalate and Brent moves back above $90, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher at the same time, leveraged long positions built during this low-IV period could face faster liquidations.
Leverage is another area the article said deserves close attention. CryptoQuant warned earlier this month that exchange leverage had climbed into the top 5% of historical readings. Glassnode also observed that the Bitcoin options put/call ratio had dropped to 0.59, the lowest in six months, pointing to clearly bullish positioning. Low volatility, high leverage and one-sided bullish exposure make for an uncomfortable mix, the report said.
Questions raised in the report
What does lower Bitcoin implied volatility mean?
The article said implied volatility is the options market's pricing of future movement. With one-week IV at 33% and one-month IV at 34%, traders are signaling expectations for continued near-term consolidation. Low IV has no built-in direction. It does not automatically mean bullish or bearish.
Why does the July Fed meeting matter for Bitcoin?
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on July 28-29. CME FedWatch shows about an 86.7% probability of no change, while hike pricing has dropped from 46.5% on July 13 to around 15%. That shift gives Bitcoin some macro relief, though the meeting will not include a dot plot, limiting the amount of fresh policy guidance.
The original article said the material was for data research only and did not constitute investment advice. It was compiled and written by Mickey帽鼠.