Bitcoin has gained roughly 14% this month, marking its strongest monthly performance in a year. Market consensus now points to a possible move above $80,000, a level not seen since January. But the perpetual futures market is sending a very different signal: funding rates, which usually move in line with spot strength, are currently below zero.
That divergence has led many traders to read the setup as a sign of weak conviction behind the rally, with derivatives traders positioning for a drop. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, argues that this interpretation may be too simple. In his view, negative funding is being driven less by broad bearish sentiment and more by institutional hedging activity.
Why funding rates matter in perpetual futures
Perpetual futures are contracts designed to track Bitcoin’s price without an expiry date. To keep those contracts anchored to spot, exchanges use a funding-rate mechanism. When perpetual futures trade above spot, longs pay shorts and the funding rate turns positive. When futures trade below spot, shorts pay longs and the rate goes negative.
Because of that design, funding rates are widely watched as a live measure of positioning and sentiment. In recent weeks, those rates have stayed negative, showing that short pressure has kept perpetual futures trading at a discount to the spot market.
10x Research points to a structural shift
According to 10x Research, Bitcoin’s 30-day average funding rate is -5%, versus a historical norm of about +8%. That leaves a 13-percentage-point gap from the baseline. What stands out is not just the level, but the direction: funding has become even more negative while Bitcoin’s price has continued to climb.
In a client note published Saturday, Thielen wrote that Bitcoin’s funding rate is sending an unusual message. With the 30-day average at minus 5% against a historical norm of plus 8%, and turning more negative even as Bitcoin has rallied about 15% and options skew has recovered, he said the futures market appears to be undergoing a structural change rather than reflecting a shift in sentiment.
His explanation is that the market is being shaped less by retail speculation and more by sophisticated institutional participants using hedge structures. Under that reading, negative funding rates do not automatically mean traders are outright bearish on Bitcoin. They may instead show that a larger share of futures activity is tied to risk management and hedging.