If you think Bitcoin's June slide is just another routine bear market dip, take a closer look at the options market on Deribit. The 11% drop left a staggering $8.6 billion worth of BTC options out-of-the-money (OTM), destined to expire worthless. That accounts for roughly 80% of the $10.6 billion in notional open interest set to expire on June 26, according to data from Deribit. Notional open interest refers to the dollar value of all active contracts at current prices.
80% OTM Positioning Sets Stage for Volatility
Options are derivatives that let traders bet on Bitcoin's price direction by a specific date. A call bets on a price rise; a put bets on a decline. Being in-the-money (ITM) means the option would be profitable if exercised today. Out-of-the-money means it has no intrinsic value and would expire worthless. Quarterly expiries like June 26 force large-scale position reshuffling among traders and market makers, which often triggers heightened volatility. With only about 20% of the $10.6B open interest sitting ITM and the rest OTM, the imbalance could fuel sharp price swings as participants scramble to adjust.
Max Pain at $74k, Put-Call Ratio Nears Balance
The max pain price for the June 26 expiry currently sits at $74,000, roughly 14% above Bitcoin's spot price near $65,000. Max pain is the level where the most options contracts would expire worthless. Theory suggests the underlying asset tends to gravitate toward that price as expiry nears, driven by market maker hedging. While the reliability of this effect in crypto is debated, if it holds, Bitcoin could see a strong bounce toward $74,000 in the coming days.
The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.87, reflecting 87,156 call contracts versus 76,241 put contracts across $10.6B in notional open interest. Though calls still slightly outnumber puts, the relatively balanced positioning highlights growing uncertainty among traders.
Open interest is heavily concentrated around two key strikes. The $60,000 put holds roughly $450 million in exposure, acting as a support level that Bitcoin tested earlier this month. Meanwhile, the $80,000 call, with about $406 million in open interest, remains a significant upside hurdle.