Bitcoin has pushed into a technically significant zone after a 5–6% short-term gain, currently trading around $73,000–$74,000. The move tightens price against resistance, setting the stage for a larger directional move. Yet analysts familiar with previous cycles caution that this is precisely where markets can be most deceptive.
Double Bottom Neckline in Focus, Historical Failures Loom
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital notes that Bitcoin is attempting to break above the neckline of a developing double bottom formation near $72,810. A weekly close above this level, or a successful retest as support, would confirm the breakout and target $81,000–$82,500. However, he warns that similar setups in earlier bear-market phases have appeared convincing but ultimately failed. This means even if Bitcoin breaks out, the move could turn into a bull trap if momentum fades.
Two confirmation signals are critical: a weekly close above $72,810, or a retest of that level as support. Without one of these, the breakout is unreliable. The main risks include rejection at resistance, a fake breakout that fails the retest, or weak follow-through that falls short of the target.
100-Day SMA Test Spells Make-or-Break Moment
Analyst Ali Martinez highlights that Bitcoin is once again testing the 100-day simple moving average, a level that has triggered major rejections in the past, leading to corrections of up to 40%. If rejected again, a triple top pattern could form, potentially dragging price back toward the $59,800 range. A clean break above the SMA, however, would reinforce the bullish case and signal the end of the broader correction phase.
Santiment data shows nearly $297 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows, indicating rising panic among retail investors. Historically, such outflows have coincided with buying opportunities, while strong inflows often mark local tops.
In summary, Bitcoin can rally further, but unless it proves strength after the breakout, this could become another bull trap rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.