Crypto trader Killa (@KillaXBT) said Bitcoin bear markets have historically traced out a five-wave correction and produced two key highs before a final bottom is in place. According to his post, the first high usually appears during the first sharp rebound after the top, a move that often convinces the market the bull run has returned. Price then tends to move lower and print a new low. Killa said similar structures appeared in the 2014, 2022 and 2026 cycles. After that “complacency high,” the market typically sees a dead-cat bounce and forms an interim bottom. As sentiment worsens and short positioning becomes crowded, a short squeeze can drive a rebound, with the ultimate bottom often arriving after a second major retest. He added that BTC has now swept the low formed after the dead-cat bounce and completed a five-wave correction similar to prior cycles. On structure alone, he said the corrective phase may be over and a low may already be in place. Even so, he remains cautious on timing, noting prior bear markets usually took about 365 days to reach a final bottom, while this cycle would be only about 260 days if the low is already in.
ChainCatcher reported that well-known trader Killa (@KillaXBT) said Bitcoin bear markets have typically completed a five-wave correction and formed two important highs along the way.
He said the first high often comes during the first sharp rebound after the market top. That move is usually seen as a “complacency high,” when the broader market starts to believe the bull market has returned, before price later moves down again and makes a new low.
Killa said a similar structure appeared in the 2014, 2022 and 2026 cycles. After the complacency high forms, the market usually sees a dead-cat bounce and sets an interim bottom. As sentiment deteriorates and short positions become crowded, a short squeeze then pushes price higher, while the final bottom often forms only after a second major retest.
In his view, BTC has already swept the bottom formed during the dead-cat bounce and has completed a five-wave corrective structure similar to earlier cycles. From a structural perspective, the correction may be over and the low may already be in place.
Still, Killa said he remains cautious on the time cycle. Previous bear markets usually took about 365 days to form a final bottom. If the low in the current cycle has already appeared, the process would have lasted only about 260 days, roughly 100 days earlier than past cycles.
For now, he said his view remains 50-50, but he sees a higher chance of a higher low forming next rather than a significant break to new lows.
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