Bitcoin has spent roughly five months trading below two major on-chain cost-basis levels, according to Glassnode. The firm said BTC remains under the True Market Mean near $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis near $72,200. These levels track the average price paid by active investors and recent buyers. When Bitcoin trades below both, a large portion of market participants hold coins at a loss. Glassnode noted this phase can support long-term accumulation but has not yet confirmed a market bottom.
Bitcoin recently bounced from about $58,300 to $64,400, showing short-term strength but failing to reclaim the key recovery levels. Glassnode said the evidence suggests the process is approaching its later stages, but added that the realized price near $53,000 cannot be ruled out. The focus remains on whether BTC can reclaim the $72,200 and $76,600 areas. Until then, selling pressure and weak risk appetite persist.
Long-term holder loss realization surges to 43%
Glassnode data shows long-term holder loss realization has climbed sharply since February. The share of total realized value from long-term holder losses jumped from 15% in early February to 43%. This group includes investors who bought near cycle highs and held through months of drawdown. Some are now exiting as the bear market drags on longer than anticipated. Glassnode said these sellers have become a major force blocking Bitcoin from recovering higher levels.
Daily long-term holder realized losses recently hit about $280 million, the highest since December 2022. The firm said this pressure has not yet cooled enough to confirm that sellers are exhausted. The next few weeks will be critical: a steady decline in realized losses would indicate long-term holders are selling less. Without that change, Bitcoin's recovery may remain limited.
ETF outflows slow but institutional demand still fragile
Bitcoin ETF flows remain a weak point. Glassnode said the 30-day average of spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows improved from about $193 million daily to $88.9 million, but flows are still negative. crypto.news reported U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, making it the worst month since the products launched in January 2024.
There was some relief on July 2, when spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $221.7 million in net inflows, ending a 10-day outflow streak. That followed roughly $2.7 billion in withdrawals over the prior 10 trading sessions. Yet Glassnode noted ETF trading volumes remain weak, ranging between $650 million and $950 million per day — about 80% below the October 2025 peak. This shows institutional demand has not fully stabilized.
Options data hints at caution despite reduced shorts
Derivatives data presents a mixed picture. Glassnode said the options open-interest put/call ratio dropped to 0.56, its lowest level of 2026. That means traders are holding far fewer puts than calls. The shift suggests short demand has eased and that some defensive positions were unwound after Bitcoin's recent bounce. Still, the options market continues to price demand for downside protection.
crypto.news reported that BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF flow drought recently eased while Bitcoin flashed a fresh rally signal, adding to signs that parts of the market are trying to stabilize after heavy selling. Glassnode said Bitcoin may be in the later stage of a bear-market bottoming process. But confirmation still needs three conditions: lower long-term holder selling, stable ETF flows, and a recovery above key cost-basis levels. Until those signals appear together, Bitcoin's bottom remains unconfirmed.