On-chain data reveals a clear pattern: the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) floor for Bitcoin's long-term holders is climbing cycle after cycle. Analyst Wedson, sharing a chart on Alphractal covering data from 2012 through March 2026, shows the four most recent cycle lows at 0.51, 0.67, 0.72, and 0.78. The incremental rise between each base is typically around 0.05 to 0.06 points. A diagonal trendline suggests the next floor could land near 0.85.
MVRV Floor Ascends: From 0.51 to 0.78
The long-term holder MVRV metric considers only wallets holding coins for at least 155 days. When the ratio drops below 1, it means this cohort is underwater on average. Historically, such moments correspond to the most painful phases of bear markets—yet they also mark aggressive accumulation zones where selling pressure fades. Wedson's data show each bear market low has stepped higher: the 2015 trough at 0.51, the 2018-2019 low at 0.67, the 2022 bottom at 0.72, and the latest around 0.78. If the pattern holds, the next floor could be near 0.85.
Bitcoin currently trades around $70,600, meaning the long-term holder MVRV still sits above the projected 0.85 baseline. This suggests the cohort is not yet broadly underwater, and the next significant low may not have been reached. Wedson interprets this structure as evidence of weakening sell pressure and a gradual consolidation of ownership among committed investors.
Institutional Inflows Lift Cost Basis, Supporting Higher Floors
The rising MVRV floor reflects a maturing investor base. Each cycle brings more long-term holders who entered at higher prices, raising the group's average cost basis. The most notable shift is the arrival of institutional money through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Many of these new holders accumulated Bitcoin in the $60,000 to $100,000 range, which lifts the realized price floor and smooths metric volatility. The composition of market participants is clearly changing.
This structural evolution implies that even if prices correct again, the degree of underwater pain for long-term holders may be shallower than in previous cycles. Still, Wedson cautions against extrapolating the trend blindly. Macro factors—especially U.S. Federal Reserve decisions—could alter where the next cycle bottom forms.
Wedson's Alert Level and Risk Warning
To prepare for a potential accumulation zone, Wedson set an alarm at 1.2 on the Alphractal platform, a level above the expected 0.85 floor. “If the formation persists, the 0.85 region will mark the cycle's strongest accumulation range,” he explained. “By setting an alarm at 1.2, I can be ready in advance as we approach this opportunity area.” The tactic aims for systematic buying when the metric suggests growing value, while managing downside risk.
Nonetheless, Wedson and other market observers stress that past patterns are no guarantee of future behavior. Broader macro dynamics, liquidity conditions, and policy shifts could still reshape the next trough. At $70,600, BTC sits well above the price level that would correspond to a 0.85 MVRV, but the thickening cost basis of long-term holders may be the defining feature of this cycle—one that marks a departure from previous eras.