With Bitcoin trading near $58,000 and institutional outflows continuing, on-chain data reveals a contrasting force: long-term investors are accumulating and refusing to sell.
Long-Term Holder Supply Hits All-Time High; Swan CEO: Early Bottom Signal
According to Glassnode, the supply held by Bitcoin long-term holders (addresses holding for more than 155 days) reached approximately 14.7 million BTC on Wednesday, a new record. Coinglass data is even higher at 16.65 million, up 14% since November 2025.
Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten told Cointelegraph that long-term holders began re-accumulating after the massive $19 billion liquidation wave in late 2025. He noted that this metric historically signals a cycle low. Based on the strong conviction of seasoned investors, Klippsten predicted the bear market bottom would come “earlier than previous cycles.”
Where Is the Bottom? Analysts Divided
Despite Klippsten's optimism, significant disagreement persists among analysts regarding the timing and depth of Bitcoin's bottom.
Swan CEO (Cory Klippsten): Near-term early bottom. Rationale: Long-term holder supply at record high, floating supply drying up, selling pressure reduced.
Jiang Zhuoer (BTC.TOP): Predicts bottom in October-December 2026, price $42,000–$44,000. Basis: MicroStrategy's mNAV has fallen to 0.72 (near 2022 lows); historically, BTC bottom lags mNAV lows by six months.
Regulatory Bill Stuck? Could Trigger Institutional Deleveraging
Macro policy risk hangs overhead. Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl warned that progress on the U.S. crypto regulatory framework, the CLARITY Act, is a key market driver. If it fails to pass this year, institutions including MicroStrategy may be forced to continue deleveraging, leading to a “moderate but sustained further decline” in Bitcoin.
The bill's prospects are dim. Galaxy Digital has lowered its probability of passage by 2026 to 50%, citing limited time before the Senate's August recess and strong opposition from traditional banks over stablecoin yield distribution. Until regulatory clarity arrives, diamond hands may face more turbulence.
Related reports: CryptoQuant founder says Bitcoin bottom is hard to call; hitting realized price could be key; STRC preferred shares correlation with Bitcoin hits new high; PlanB warns Bitcoin could break below $53K realized price.