Bitcoin tumbled sharply after the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish policy update, sliding from a high of 66,315 on June 17 to an intraday low of 63,683 on June 18 — a 4% drop. The asset briefly recovered near $64,444 but remains under pressure.
Fed Decision Crushes Relief Rally, Dot Plot Sparks Sell-Off
The Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% while its updated dot plot projected fewer rate cuts and left the door open to further tightening. Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a departure from traditional forward guidance, injecting fresh uncertainty into the policy outlook and triggering a broad risk-off move across global markets. Hours earlier, traders had cheered an interim peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran that reopened the Strait of Hormuz and removed restrictions on Iranian oil exports — pushing crude oil down to around $75 per barrel, its lowest since early March. That geopolitical relief quickly gave way to monetary policy concerns.
Derivatives markets amplified the move: more than $1.2 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for the vast majority. Meanwhile, bitcoin's June 26 options expiry looms — Deribit data shows open interest of 163,617 contracts (notional value of roughly $10.5 billion). Calls are concentrated at the $80,000 strike, while put demand is strongest near $60,000. The max pain price sits at $74,000, well above the current market price, leaving a large share of bullish contracts out of the money and increasing the likelihood of dealer hedging and elevated volatility.
Ascending Channel Lower Boundary Tested, Bears Eye $62K
The four-hour chart shows bitcoin testing the lower boundary of an ascending channel that has guided price action since the rebound from $60,000 on June 5. Buyers defended that zone several times over the past two weeks, but the latest rejection from the upper trendline near $67,000 pushed BTC back toward the critical support area around $64,000. The Relative Strength Index has slipped to 44, and Chaikin Money Flow has fallen back to zero after briefly turning positive — both readings point to waning buying pressure.
The daily chart presents another hurdle: bitcoin failed to reclaim the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $65,000 and remains below Supertrend resistance at $68,400. The Aroon indicator continues to favor sellers, with Aroon Down above 78% and Aroon Up near 7%, highlighting that the larger downtrend from May highs is intact.
Liquidation heatmaps show dense overhead liquidity clusters near $65,000, $66,300 and $67,000, while sizeable liquidity pools sit near $63,500 and $62,000 below current prices. Markets tend to gravitate toward these zones when leverage builds.
Analyst Ted Pillows commented: "$BTC tapped the $64,000 support zone after yesterday's FOMC meeting. This level needs to hold for any rally towards $67,000-$68,000. Or else, Bitcoin will drop towards $61,000-$62,000 again."
Institutional Demand Weakens, $60K Becomes Realistic Under Macro Pressure
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded persistent outflows in recent weeks, while the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative — suggesting muted buying from U.S. investors and large market participants. On-chain analyst Draxen noted that in previous cycles, BTC often traded below realized price during major bottoming phases. “A visit to the $50K region remains a possibility before BTC establishes enough strength for a convincing break and hold above $100K,” he said.
For a bullish reversal, reclaiming $65,000 and then breaking above the $67,000-$68,000 resistance cluster would weaken the immediate bearish structure and expose the June high near $66,800 before a potential move toward $70,000. However, failure to defend the ascending channel — especially if Treasury yields continue rising and the Fed maintains its higher-for-longer stance — could shift focus back to $62,000 and the June swing low near $60,000.