Bitcoin long-term holders are sitting on a record supply, but their average unrealized gains remain far below levels seen earlier in the cycle, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. In a post on X, Darkfost said wallets classified as long-term holders, defined as entities that have held BTC for more than six months, now control more than 16.3 million BTC, the highest level on record. Their average cost basis stands at about $49,400, which translates into only around 30% unrealized profit at current prices.
Darkfost contrasted that reading with January 2025, when net unrealized profit for the same cohort briefly climbed to roughly 340%. He also pointed to the end of the previous bear market, when long-term holders were collectively sitting on about 20% unrealized losses before the market went through a deeper pullback. Based on that comparison, he said Bitcoin could still face further downside that pushes this group back into loss territory, though he added that history does not have to repeat in the same way. His conclusion was straightforward: investors should be prepared for both upside and pullback scenarios.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said on X that Bitcoin long-term holders, or LTHs, now hold more than 16.3 million BTC, setting a new all-time high for the cohort.
He defined long-term holders as investors who have held their coins for more than six months. According to Darkfost, the group’s average cost basis is about $49,400. At current prices, that leaves them with only around 30% in unrealized profit, a relatively low level.
For comparison, Darkfost said net unrealized profit among long-term holders reached roughly 340% at one point in January 2025. He also said that near the end of the previous bear market, the group as a whole was sitting on about 20% unrealized losses before the market went through a deeper correction.
In his view, that leaves open the possibility of another pullback that could push long-term holders back into loss territory. He added, however, that this does not mean history will necessarily repeat itself in the same way.
Darkfost said investors should be prepared for both possible outcomes: continued upside and a market pullback.
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