Crypto analyst Doctor Profit warned that Bitcoin's recent drop below the weekly 200-moving average and subsequent retest from below resembles a dangerous setup last seen in 2022. In his latest market update, he argued that a reclaim of the MA200 weekly does not signal a trend reversal but rather a bear trap that could precede a deeper decline.
Historical Pattern Points to False Breakout
Doctor Profit recalled that during the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin lost the MA200 weekly, then rallied to close above it for three consecutive weeks. That move lured bullish traders before the price eventually collapsed to the $15,000-$16,000 range. He believes the current retest shares the same structure, and retail investors are likely to misinterpret a close above the MA200 as confirmation of a reversal, only to get caught in another false breakout.
Short Positions and Price Target
The analyst said he continues holding short positions initiated around $120,000 and with an average entry of $80,500. He has placed additional short orders between $68,000 and $69,000 but does not plan to add new positions below that zone. Instead, any rally above the MA200 weekly would be used for further short entries. His price target remains the CBB zone (BlackRock Bitcoin ETF launch area) between $40,000 and $50,000.
Key Macro Events This Week
Doctor Profit also highlighted three major economic events: the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the June 16-17 meeting due July 8, which may detail the committee's hawkish discussions following a dot plot projecting one possible rate hike before end-2026; initial jobless claims on July 9; and consumer credit data on July 8. These data points could shape market expectations for Fed policy and, in turn, influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.