Bitcoin may be approaching a macro bottom, according to Eric Krown, a former New York Stock Exchange Arca options market maker who now trades crypto full time. Speaking on Crypto Banter’s Risk Takers, Krown said he has about an 85% level of confidence that a major low is being confirmed if BTC closes July above $63,735.
The July 19, 2026 episode was hosted by Alessandro. Krown, who runs the YouTube channel Krown’s Crypto Cave, disclosed that he bought spot BTC a little above $60,000 and also operates paid trading courses and exchange affiliate links, including ByBit and BloFin. The program description said the discussion was focused on technical analysis rather than promotion of specific tokens.
A narrow band of levels now matters most
Krown’s framework in this interview centered on a checklist of higher-timeframe signals that he said are now lining up at roughly the same time. The main levels were a monthly 55 EMA reclaim at $63,735, a monthly stochastic cross trigger at $64,371, and a biweekly MACD histogram cycle that projects into early August.
He said the monthly 55 EMA has historically acted as one of Bitcoin’s clearest markers for confirming macro lows. In his read of prior cycles, BTC lost that average in 2018 for only two monthly closes before reclaiming it and then moving sharply higher. In 2022, it spent roughly half a year below the line, and the recovery of that level marked the start of the next bull phase. He added that the same average also acted as a basing reference in 2014 and 2015, even if the earlier data set is more limited.
For the current setup, Krown said a monthly close above $63,735 would complete that reclaim. He described the signal as highly specific and easy to track. Even a committed bear, in his view, would have to acknowledge that such a move likely marks at least a major low, with BTC then likely to rebound above $70,000.
For shorter-term confirmation, he said he would still want to see Bitcoin close above $65,500. But on the monthly chart, $63,735 is the first hard threshold he is watching.
Why he adjusts Bitcoin with M2 money supply
Early in the conversation, Alessandro asked whether Krown still believed Bitcoin would look constructive by summer after spending time chopping around the $60,000 area. Krown said yes, and argued that many of the loudest calls for BTC to fall into the $40,000-$50,000 zone miss a key point: the market is still thinking in nominal dollars while money supply has changed materially.
His preferred way to frame the chart is BTC divided by M2 money supply. In that setup, he said, the denominator normalizes the effect of monetary expansion and gives a different view of how deep the drawdown really is.
He used 2022 as the comparison. At the time, he said, many traders were looking for $10,000 or even $8,000. But on an M2-adjusted basis, Bitcoin had already reached the equivalent of that $10,000 area by November 2022. He said he made that point on his own channel then as well: anyone waiting for $10,000-$11,000 had effectively already gotten it once the chart was adjusted for money supply.
He thinks the same dynamic is in play now. On a BTC/M2 basis, Krown said, the sub-$50,000 level many traders want has effectively already been tested through a revisit of the August 2024 flash-crash low at $49,270. In his words, the market has already delivered the number many people were asking for, but they were measuring it with the wrong ruler.
Krown added that money supply has expanded by roughly 40% to 50% since 2020, while many investors still treat the dollar as if it were a constant measuring stick. That, he said, creates a persistent bias when people assess asset prices.
Alessandro said he had used the same BTC/M2 framing before, arguing that Bitcoin is one of the few assets that continues to print higher highs and higher lows relative to money supply, while the S&P 500 and gold have weakened on that basis. Krown agreed and said the S&P only recently broke above its 1999 high on an M2-adjusted chart as well.
Monthly MACD, RSI and stochastic are all telling a similar story
Krown did not rely on one chart. He grouped the monthly MACD, RSI and stochastic oscillator into the same bottoming checklist.
On MACD, he said monthly momentum is now starting to weaken in a way that has historically appeared near major lows. July marked the first month of what he called an “awesome momentum signal,” with the prior occurrence in April. In earlier cycles, he said, once monthly MACD momentum started to cool, the low was either already in or close enough that taking the trade made sense. He pointed to 2015, when the low had already formed, and 2019, when the reversal was nearly on the same bar. In 2022, even with the later FTX collapse, he said a buy on the MACD signal would have been only one month early relative to the final low.
On RSI, Krown said the monthly reading is now roughly in line with the 2022 bottom, perhaps slightly lower, and below the level seen at every earlier macro low in Bitcoin’s history. For him, that matters because multiple momentum oscillators are now clustering around the same message rather than sending conflicting signals.
The monthly stochastic oscillator is also part of that setup. Krown said it has already moved into the oversold zone below 20, which he treats as a low signal in itself. The next confirmation would be an upside cross. Looking back to 2012, he said, every time that cross appeared, the low was already in place.
He then reverse-engineered a price threshold: if Bitcoin closes the month at $64,371 or higher, that would force the stochastic into an upward cross. That leaves two trigger points in a tight range, $63,735 for the 55 EMA reclaim and $64,371 for the stochastic cross. If both are hit, and if MACD momentum and RSI remain where they are, Krown said even the strongest bears would need to reconsider whether this zone is the macro bottom.
The 168-day biweekly MACD pattern points to early August
Krown also returned to one of the tools he said helped him publicly identify the 2022 macro low in advance: a trendline drawn on the biweekly MACD histogram.
Starting from 2018, he said, a descending trendline can be drawn across the histogram lows. Each time the histogram touches that line, a market low forms. He was careful to separate that signal from the actual price low, though. The histogram low comes first, and price bottoms later.
What stands out to him is the consistency of that lag. In 2018, the gap from the MACD histogram low to the actual macro price low was 168 days. In 2022, it was also 168 days, which he described as exact to the day.
In the current cycle, he said, the trendline has already been touched. Projecting forward by 168 days lands in early August, right in the same window as the monthly 55 EMA reclaim and the stochastic cross. That overlap is the main reason he is putting more weight on the setup now. One signal can fail. Several independent signals reaching the same area at the same time is a different kind of argument.
That is also why, in his words, his confidence rises from 80% to 85%. He told Alessandro that trading never offers 100% certainty, but when five or six independent signals begin to trigger in the same week, the probabilities shift meaningfully.
LTI model shows a 22.64% drawdown from the January signal
Another part of Krown’s case came from what he calls the LTI, or long-term investor, tool. He described it as a composite model that combines volatility, momentum, date factors and other fundamentals.
Historically, he said, when the LTI issues a strong buy signal, price still tends to fall about 20% before the final low is in. He ran through four examples:
- In December 2014, the first strong buy signal was followed by a 22.90% drop into the next closing low.
- In 2018, the decline from signal to low was 20.61%.
- In June 2022, the signal-to-low move was 20.65%.
- In the current cycle, the strong buy signal appeared in January 2026, and the pullback from that signal to the current closing low has reached 22.64%.
He said the consistency of those four drawdowns, all in a 20% to 23% band, stands out.
Krown still attached a condition to his macro-bottom call. The weekly trend, he said, still needs to reverse formally. Right now, every higher timeframe is still technically in a downtrend, and he stated that plainly. Even so, if Bitcoin gets the monthly close above the levels he outlined, he would raise his confidence from 80% to 85%. That would not rule out a move to $75,000 followed by a pullback to $65,000, but in his view the base structure of a bottom is already taking shape.
Sentiment remains depressed even as price has turned
On market psychology, Krown pointed to the Fear and Greed Index, which he said is now at 28 after spending two to three months below 20. He also said activity around his YouTube analysis has faded, with fewer people paying attention and those still present staying deeply bearish.
He described that as a classic divergence: sentiment is still “in the basement,” while price has already completed a major reversal off the lows. According to Krown, that same mix showed up at every macro bottom in 2015, 2019 and 2022.
Because of that, he said he does not think there is much room left to the downside even if the macro low has not been fully confirmed yet. In the worst case, he sees something more like a multi-month relief rally.
His key level there is $60,000. Krown said the area matters both technically and psychologically. As long as BTC holds above it, he is willing to treat the current zone as a major low, possibly even the macro low. A weekly or biweekly close below $60,000 would damage many of the signals he is tracking.
When Alessandro asked whether the invalidation point was a biweekly or 10-day close below $60,000, Krown agreed. In technical terms, he said, that kind of close would begin to break the setup apart. He added that he has not seen that happen yet.
He is not focused on the four-year cycle narrative
Alessandro also asked whether the current bottom could arrive before October, which would fit the familiar four-year cycle narrative. Krown said he is not especially interested in that framing anymore. In his view, many people repeat the claim that Bitcoin bottoms one year after the cycle top, then conclude that the low must come in October, without addressing how the top itself should be defined.
He argued that if BTC is measured against M2, the timing of the top changes, which is another reason he prefers live market signals over fixed cycle dates. If the bottom signal is there, he said, he will act on it instead of waiting for a textbook month.
At the same time, he did not reject the timing argument outright. Alessandro pointed out that if it is only July and the low is in now or within the next month or two, then the four-year cycle would still be broadly correct. Krown said that was fair. July is only three months away from October, close enough that the cycle call would still deserve credit. He added that traders do not need perfect timing to make substantial money in Bitcoin.
His caveat was simple: if BTC were to make a new low in October, he would strongly question whether that could still count as the real bottom, because it would imply deeper technical damage.
Rotation in traditional markets: out of semis, into biotech and industrials
The discussion moved beyond crypto as well. Krown said semiconductors are the clearest area of rotation in traditional markets right now. From April 2025 to today, he said, the semiconductor index has risen by more than 300%. He said he publicly called a top in semis in early July, and that profit-taking after such a run is understandable.
That view does not make him bearish on equities as a whole. Krown said rotation is not the same as a bear market. In his read, money leaving semiconductors is moving into healthcare biotech and industrial names instead.
He highlighted IBB, the iShares Biotechnology ETF, saying it has just completed a daily-chart breakout and could continue rising through year-end. In the near term, he said, a pullback toward 180 could offer a buying opportunity. He added that industrials are strengthening as well.
On the broader market, Krown said the SPY chart is not bearish. A short-term move back toward 7200 is possible, but he still sees the larger trend as bullish into Q4. He said he does not see any macro top signal at present, at least not before October or November. QQQ looks weaker in the short term, and he said early August could still bring another flash crash, something he noted has happened in that part of the calendar in recent years, before the trend resumes higher.
Alessandro added that a memory ETF had already retraced half its gains while the broader index barely moved, and that Apple had become the largest company again. Krown replied that Apple’s chart still looks very strong and may have another 3 to 6 months of upside. That, he said, is how the market often functions: one sector tops, money rotates into the next one, and the index keeps climbing. He said the same pattern has been in place since 2008.
Bearish on gold, constructive on copper
Near the end of the interview, Krown laid out sharply different views on gold and copper.
He said he remains “extremely bearish” on gold and silver. In his view, gold topped in January right on a 10-year cycle, and is now more likely to spend the next several years moving sideways to lower. Any rebound during that period, he said, would look more like a shorting opportunity to him.
Copper, by contrast, shows what he called a completely different chart. Krown said it has just broken out of a consolidation range that began in 2006 and lasted about 20 years, with a target around $8. He tied that thesis to AI data center construction, saying those facilities require large amounts of copper.
His technical line in the sand is $560. As long as copper remains above that level, he said, the chart is objectively bullish. He added that he does not trade copper often, but from a purely technical standpoint, the breakout looks real and still has room to run.
Program details and disclosures
The interview came from Crypto Banter, with Alessandro as host and Eric Krown as guest. According to the program notes, Krown started learning equity options at the Pacific Stock Exchange as a teenager, later served as an authorized market maker trader, or MMAT, at NYSE Arca, and then moved into full-time crypto trading. This was his fourth appearance on Alessandro’s Risk Takers, part of a monthly series tracking one question in real time: where Bitcoin’s macro bottom may form.
The disclosure section also stated that Krown has publicly said he bought spot BTC a little above $60,000, and that he operates paid trading education and exchange affiliate links, including ByBit and BloFin.