A crypto analyst known as Sherlock on X published a study examining Bitcoin's historical bear market drawdowns. According to the data, Bitcoin suffered peak-to-trough losses of 93% in 2011, 86% in 2015, 84% in 2018, and 77% during the 2022 bear market. If the pattern of diminishing but still severe corrections continues, the current cycle may see a roughly 70% drawdown from the all-time high, pushing Bitcoin down to $38,000—a level last seen in October 2024.
Historical Drawdowns Point to $38K Floor
Sherlock argued that each successive bear market has seen a slightly smaller percentage decline, but the absolute damage remains high. He cautioned against using “diminishing returns” as a reason to expect a shallow correction, emphasizing that historical data serves only as a rough guide, not a deterministic model.
Can Institutional Money Cushion the Fall?
The call sparked heated debate. Some respondents countered that comparing top-to-bottom moves alone is misleading. When accounting for the asymmetry between bottom-to-top rallies and subsequent declines, plus the increasing involvement of institutional capital—spot ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign funds—the actual correction should be closer to 55%–60% rather than 70%.
Sherlock fired back, noting that reflexivity works both ways. A breakdown below key support could trigger forced liquidations, miner capitulation, and panic selling among retail participants, creating a negative feedback loop that amplifies downside. “Trying to time a perfect bottom is a dangerous game,” he warned.
At press time, Bitcoin had bounced from an intraday low but remains under pressure near levels not seen since October 2024. The market is waiting for clearer signals before confirming whether the corrective phase has ended.