Bitcoin’s drop below $58,000 in early July failed to produce the kind of visible dip-buying response often associated with major lows, adding fresh uncertainty over whether that level can be treated as a bear-market floor.
Cointelegraph reported that buyers largely stayed on the sidelines as Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $57,800 in July. Data from the Bitcoin HODL Waves metric showed no rush into the market after BTC/USD slipped under $58,000 at the start of the month.
Willy Woo says the buyer at the bottom may have been a lone whale
According to HODL Waves data, the latest macro low drew an unusually weak onchain response.
The metric groups Bitcoin supply by how long coins have remained dormant in wallets, then plots those groups over time as wave-like bands. The newest cohort, coins that have been dormant for between one and seven days, is commonly used to gauge buying activity after important BTC price moves.
Look Into Bitcoin data showed that on July 1, BTC/USD briefly fell below $58,000 and hit its lowest level since September 2024. On that day, the share of supply dormant for one to seven days stood at 1.97%. By July 5, that figure had risen only slightly to 2.35%.
For onchain analyst Willy Woo, that lack of movement was unusual for a long-term Bitcoin low. He said previous new lows tended to attract fast buying, a knee-jerk response that did not appear in July.
In a post on X this week, Woo wrote, 「Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale.」 He described the event as an 「anomaly.」
Woo also said the reading was not foolproof, adding that institutional investment vehicles may be affecting the HODL Waves data.
He added: 「I haven’t found any other thesis to explain the anomaly apart from slow steady buying by all investors involved this implies it’s a handful of buyers because if it was many they tend to act like a herd around price action and create spikes in the buying pattern.」
Debate over a bear-market floor is still open
The findings feed into the broader argument over whether July marked Bitcoin’s latest bear-market bottom.
As Cointelegraph previously reported, views split sharply after BTC/USD rebounded above $80,000. Earlier Bitcoin cycles, it said, suggest that another macro low may still be needed in the coming months.
In his latest analysis, trader and analyst Rekt Capital said the broader bear-market structure still appears intact, with a sequence of lower highs inside a wider downtrend.
Writing on Thursday, he said: 「At this very moment, Bitcoin is positioned for a repeat of bearish price history. However, Bitcoin has a few more days to turn things around before the new Weekly Close, if it can. A Weekly Close below ~$78300 could set price up for a breakdown like in May.」
Buyer appetite improved in August. Over a three-week period, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.8 billion in net inflows.