Bitcoin's on-chain metrics are flashing a bullish signal again. According to CryptoQuant analyst CW8900, the MVRV ratio is approaching a golden cross with its 200-day moving average. Historically, such crossovers have triggered strong upward moves—after the 2022 crossover, Bitcoin rallied 90% from $16,300 to $31,000; another in September 2023 preceded a 400% surge to $126,000. These precedents fuel expectations for a fresh rally.
Historic Power of MVRV Golden Cross: Two Past Cases
CW8900 noted: "The MVRV ratio is set to soon cross its 200-day average in a golden cross. Past occurrences of this event have triggered strong upward moves in BTC." By late April, the 30-day average of MVRV had already crossed above the 90-day average, seen as a positive sign. Following recent price swings and the move to $83,000, short-term investors have started booking profits, reflecting improved sentiment.
Short-Term Holder Costs Shift: $92K Becomes Key
Bitcoin's recent rally has pushed the average purchase price for short-term holders higher. Analysts predict this cost band could rise to $92,000. If broken, price action may enter the "heat band," potentially opening the door for a further rally toward $104,000. Glassnode data show the market is nearing the risk zone for short-term investors, but there is still room to test higher prices before serious profit-taking sets in. "The heat band is located at $92,000, while the overbought zone sits at $104,000. As the price approaches these areas, volatility is likely to intensify," analysts observed.
Multiple Indicators Align: Some Analysts Hint at 'Super Rally'
According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin is once again testing its 200-day moving average at $82,500. A decisive breakout above this level could end the months-long downtrend; a selloff might send prices down to $50,000. Analyst Shib Spain argued that the multi-week downtrend visible on weekly charts may have ended—the MACD indicator is turning positive, suggesting a structural shift. Moustache said both market value and monthly RSI have bounced off long-term support lines: "Just like in 2022, I have called the bottom for this cycle in Bitcoin," pointing to a possible imminent breakout. Some experts even discuss an unprecedented "super rally" this year, fueled by institutional interest and strengthening technicals, with potential targets in the $180,000 to $250,000 range. A combination of critical technical signals and shifting investor behavior reinforces the case for a bullish scenario going forward.