A closely watched onchain signal for Bitcoin is moving toward a level that has historically lined up with major bear market lows. According to BitBo, the MVRV Z-Score stands at 0.24, just above the upper edge of the so-called green zone, an area that starts around zero and extends slightly below it.
The move comes after a steep selloff last week. In past cycles, every major Bitcoin bottom has arrived when the MVRV Z-Score either touched zero or briefly slipped under it. That pattern appeared in 2011-2012 during Bitcoin’s first major crash, again in 2014, again in late 2018, and most recently in the second half of 2022. In that 2022 episode, the drop below zero marked a price low that was followed by a multi-year bull run.
What the indicator is measuring
The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value. Market value reflects what the asset is worth at the current price, while realized value is derived from the average price of each coin the last time it moved onchain. That realized figure is widely treated as a rough proxy for fair value.
When the market price trades far above realized value, Bitcoin is expensive relative to its own history. When price falls toward or below realized value, it becomes cheap by the same standard. The Z-Score turns that gap into a statistical measure, offering a cleaner read on where Bitcoin sits in the broader cycle instead of focusing on daily price noise.
Close to accumulation, but not a confirmed final low
At current levels, the indicator is nearing what many traders view as an accumulation zone. Still, it is not a direct price target. It measures how stretched or compressed Bitcoin’s market value is compared with realized value.
The article also notes that the market may not have reached a final bottom yet. Holder behavior remains mixed. Onchain data shows that Long-Term Holder MVRV, which tracks the profitability of coins held for at least 155 days, has not yet converged with Short-Term Holder MVRV, which focuses on coins held for less than 155 days. Until those two measures come together, some selling pressure may still need to clear.