Bitcoin traded near $62,099 after a sharp selloff, and Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards said the move has pushed BTC to a 28% “quantum discount” versus his model of fair value. In his view, the market is not treating Bitcoin as already compromised. It is assigning a discount because planning for post-quantum security upgrades remains slow.
Edwards compares spot price with a valuation path that points toward $120,000. The latest decline put Bitcoin below the model’s discount line and widened the gap between market price and his estimate of value. That gap, he argues, reflects investor concern that Bitcoin still lacks a clear migration plan for a post-quantum future.
Post-quantum planning is back at the center of the debate
The concern is tied to the possibility that future quantum computers could break the elliptic curve cryptography used to secure Bitcoin wallets. Current systems remain safe against conventional computers. The debate is about what happens later, not what has already happened today.
Edwards said the key problem is developer inertia around quantum-resistant upgrades, with Bitcoin Core not moving fast enough on post-quantum signature planning. Citi has also warned that Bitcoin faces an outsized quantum threat, estimating that 6.5 million to 6.9 million BTC may already have exposed public keys on-chain. Quantus issued a separate warning, saying the timeline for quantum advances may be moving faster than previously expected, with lost wallets standing out as a hard problem because their coins cannot be moved to safer addresses.
Stanford cryptographer Dan Boneh offered a narrower and more cautious view: “Don’t panic, but don’t ignore.” He also warned that a rushed migration could create technical risks of its own. That leaves the issue in an uncomfortable middle ground: serious enough to plan for, but not proof that Bitcoin security has already failed.
Edwards says markets may start pricing a higher risk after 2027
According to Edwards, the probability of a major quantum break, often called Q-Day, may start to rise after 2027. He added that the threat could climb sharply by 2030 if Bitcoin still has no clear upgrade path. His argument is not that Bitcoin is broken now. It is that the absence of an official roadmap can weigh on valuation before any technical break actually happens.
On that basis, his model suggests Bitcoin may struggle to reclaim new highs without clearer action from developers. He said a formal upgrade plan within the next 12 months could help close the valuation gap. Even so, this remains one market framework rather than a fixed pricing rule. Bitcoin still responds to liquidity conditions, ETF flows, macro stress, and leverage.
Corporate treasury strategies add a second layer of pressure
Edwards also pointed to Bitcoin treasury companies as another source of concern, especially firms using debt and capital markets to accumulate BTC at scale. He highlighted the risk tied to heavily leveraged strategies during periods of market stress. Strategy remains the most visible example because of its long-running Bitcoin treasury program.
The report also noted that Bitcoin had already been under pressure from Iran-linked market stress and ETF outflows. In the same context, Strategy sold 32 BTC for about $2.5 million, its first Bitcoin sale in nearly four years. The near-term focus is whether buyers can defend the $60,000 area. If BTC stabilizes there, the quantum debate may stay a longer-term valuation issue. If selling continues, technical weakness and security concerns may keep feeding the same bearish narrative.