Bitcoin rose to $63,450 over the weekend, but the move ran into overhead selling as traders kept a close eye on $62,700, the 200-week simple moving average. That zone is being treated as a major long-term technical line for the market.
Trading conditions were softer than usual because of thinner weekend order books and a three-day holiday in the United States. Even so, buyers managed to push price higher. Some market watchers said sell orders stacked above the market were limiting follow-through. Analyst Exitpump said Bitcoin was facing strong passive selling from higher levels, which kept upside momentum under pressure.
Short liquidations fuel the latest push higher
Daan Crypto Trades said short positions were liquidated during the recent rally. Data from CoinGlass showed total crypto market liquidations reached $167 million in the past 24 hours. As prices moved up, traders positioned for downside were forced to close, adding extra buy pressure to the move.
Daan described the setup as a classic short squeeze after a heavy build-up in short exposure. Forced liquidations then helped extend the rally. Trader Killa pointed to another pattern: Bitcoin has shown notable weakness on each of the last seven Mondays. That leaves the start of the new trading week under close watch. A quiet weekend can shift fast.
ETF flows and US macro data are driving attention
In a market note released Friday, QCP Capital said crypto and other risk assets may be moving into a more supportive backdrop. The firm linked that view to the return of net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which it sees as an important support for sentiment.
On the macro side, last week’s US nonfarm payrolls report came in below expectations, easing concerns about aggressive rate hikes. QCP Capital also pointed to a 2% rise in gold as a sign that markets are leaning toward a more dovish Federal Reserve view, tied more to safe-haven demand and real-yield protection than to optimism about growth.
According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its July 29 meeting now stands at about 80%. QCP Capital said broader optimism in risk assets would still need support from upcoming consumer price index data. For now, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can stay above $62,700 and whether macro releases shift risk appetite at the start of the week.