Bitcoin hovered near $64,830 on Thursday, up 0.8% over the past 24 hours and 1.3% on the week, according to CoinDesk data. Even with the gain, it continued to trade inside a narrow range.
Ether rose 2.1%, while most other major cryptocurrencies barely moved. The broader market looked less like a breakout and more like a wait-and-see session.
Macro expectations are driving the bid
CoinDesk said the support under bitcoin is coming from macro hopes rather than a fresh wave of crypto demand. President Donald Trump pointed to strong employment, better manufacturing data and cooling inflation, and also raised the possibility of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
A reopening would likely put pressure on oil prices. That could ease inflation concerns and give Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar room to fall. For risk assets, that is the setup traders want, and bitcoin is trading as if part of that outcome may be on the table.
Several links in the chain still need to line up
The trade is not straightforward. Lower oil still has to feed into lower inflation expectations. Lower inflation expectations then need to pull down real yields and the dollar.
CoinDesk also noted that bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 is roughly 63%. In the near term, that leaves equity sentiment potentially more important than crypto-native flows. A calmer backdrop in the Middle East may help risk appetite, but it can also reduce the safe-haven demand that supported bitcoin earlier in the summer.
Real yields and the dollar are the key levels
The main variables to watch are real yields and the dollar. If both move lower alongside oil, bitcoin would have a clearer path above the top of its recent range.
If yields stay firm, the macro case remains theoretical, and bitcoin will likely remain pinned near $65,000.