Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to 2,666,753 BTC, matching levels last seen on Aug. 31, 2019. At that time, Bitcoin traded near $9,430; now it is hovering close to $73,000. Fewer coins on exchanges mean less inventory is immediately available for sale, but tighter supply on its own does not confirm a rebound.
The current market structure is not the same as it was in 2019. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024, creating a demand channel that did not exist in the earlier cycle. The source material notes that exchange reserves have kept falling during the ETF era. That changes the supply picture, yet it leaves the main question unresolved: whether ETF inflows and spot demand can offset weak cycle data and cautious holder behavior.
Cycle readings remain far weaker than the 2019 backdrop
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator shows a colder setup than the one seen in 2019. On Aug. 31, 2019, the indicator stood at +0.83, placing Bitcoin in a bull zone, while the 30-day moving average was +1.045 and the 365-day average was -0.206. By May 2026, the latest reading had shifted to -0.379, with the 30-day average at -0.375 and the 365-day average at -0.323.
That gap matters. Falling reserves alone do not establish a bullish trend if broader cycle data still point to a weaker phase. Analyst K A L E O also flagged cycle timing as a reason for short-term caution, saying he would like to see a bounce near $70,000 while adding that the market may spend more time in the current range.
Long-term holder SOPR at 0.87 points to pressure on profitability
Profitability among long-term holders has also weakened. Arab Chain said the long-term holder SOPR has dropped to around 0.87 while Bitcoin trades in the mid-$70,000 area. SOPR measures whether coins moved by long-term holders are being spent at a profit or a loss. A reading below 1 means some of those coins are being moved or sold below their acquisition price.
That does not automatically end a broader uptrend, but it does show that older or larger holders are not exiting from a position of strong profit. The metric has moved lower over recent months after sitting at higher levels during stronger market phases. The source notes that some traders still view lower SOPR zones as rebalancing periods, though the current data reflect pressure rather than a clear recovery.
Bearish MACD and weak RSI keep focus on $70K and $68K support
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $73,257, after reaching an intraday high close to $75,944 and a low near $72,678. Price remains below the mid-to-high $70,000 area that bulls need to reclaim for a stronger short-term recovery.
Momentum indicators still lean bearish. The MACD line remains below the signal line, and the histogram is around -145, showing downside momentum is still active. RSI stands near 35.12, below its moving average of about 45.03, which suggests sellers still control the short-term move. RSI is approaching oversold territory, but the source says it has not reached a level that confirms a full reset.
Traders are also watching whale positioning. CW said Bitcoin whales had shifted toward long positions, while warning that the market still needs to see whether that trend holds. If Bitcoin can move back above the mid-to-high $70,000 zone with stronger volume, the short-term setup may improve. If current levels fail, attention may stay on support near $70,000 and $68,000.