Bitcoin traded between $74,000 and $75,000 on April 15, marking a rebound of roughly 23% from its recent low near $60,000 in February. The move has brought the market back to a closely watched resistance band between $75,000 and $76,000, an area that has capped price action for the past two months.
That level now carries unusual weight. If Bitcoin can hold support above $71,000 and break cleanly through $76,000, technical models cited in the source point to a move into the upper $70,000s and possibly $80,000. If the breakout fails, the market could slip back toward $70,000 or even the lower $60,000 range where the last recovery started.
Negative funding persists even as price recovers
Spot strength has not been matched by clear conviction in derivatives. Research firm K33 said the 30-day average funding rate for perpetual swaps has stayed negative for 46 straight days, matching conditions last seen near the bear-market bottom in late 2022.
In practice, that means traders holding long positions have continued receiving funding from bearish counterparties even while Bitcoin has rallied. K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde said earlier periods that combined rising prices with negative funding often came before short squeezes, when bearish positions are forced to close quickly. The message from the market is mixed. Spot buyers have pushed higher, but derivatives traders remain defensive.
Geopolitics shifts the way Bitcoin is being framed
The report argues that the conflict involving Iran is accelerating a broader change in how Bitcoin is viewed. Rather than being treated only as a speculative asset driven by volatility, it is also being assessed as a settlement rail and a tool for transferring value outside conventional financial channels.
After US and Israeli airstrikes began in February, Bitcoin rose about 12% while global stock indexes fell and gold weakened. That divergence cuts against the older view that Bitcoin mainly trades in line with high-growth technology risk. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the market now sees Bitcoin as two instruments at once: a form of “digital gold” competing in the global store-of-value arena, and a decentralized, neutral network that can function as money and settlement infrastructure when traditional payment systems are constrained.
Hougan added that financial sanctions can increase reliance on permissionless networks, making Bitcoin more attractive to countries facing policy or operational restrictions. The shift is not limited to theory.
Strait of Hormuz case puts Bitcoin into a trade flow
The article points to a reported development in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has begun demanding Bitcoin as part of a $1-per-barrel transit fee for oil shipments moving through the waterway. At current levels, that could amount to about $20 million a day in Bitcoin-linked settlements, placing the asset into a live trade-related use case connected to global energy markets.
Hougan links the trend to earlier disruptions in international payments, including Russia’s removal from the SWIFT network in 2022, which exposed how national financial systems can be affected by political decisions. For Iran, which has long faced sanctions and has sought alternative payment routes, integrating Bitcoin into meaningful settlement flows serves as a practical test of whether the asset can operate as a neutral payment mechanism outside the control of any single state. At the same time, Bitcoin is sitting near $75,000, where technical resistance and geopolitical demand are colliding.