Bitcoin moved toward $94,000 over the past 24 hours, helped by a mix of geopolitical tension and renewed optimism around U.S. crypto regulation. The rally added to bullish sentiment for 2026, even as the policy backdrop remains unsettled.
The source ties the latest price move to rising political tension involving Venezuela and signals from the U.S. government that it will maintain a hard line. Bitcoin is not directly linked to those events. Still, periods of global uncertainty often push part of the market toward assets seen as alternatives to the traditional financial system.
TD Cowen Sees No Major Shift in U.S. Market Structure Rules This Year
In a new research note, investment bank TD Cowen said it does not expect meaningful changes to U.S. crypto market structure regulation in the current year. The firm said full approval is unlikely before 2027, and in a worst-case scenario some rules may not take effect until 2029.
According to the report, the main obstacle is not a market that is unprepared for regulation. It is political disagreement. As crypto adoption expands, lawmakers are still split over how strict the rules should be and which groups should face the strongest restrictions.
Conflict-of-Interest Provisions Are Holding Up the Bill
The most sensitive issue in the debate is conflict-of-interest regulation. Democratic lawmakers support strict limits that would bar senior government officials and their immediate family members from taking part in crypto business during their time in office. That proposal has become a central point of dispute in negotiations.
TD Cowen warned that adding such restrictions at the outset could stall the legislative process or even sink the bill altogether. Support for clearer crypto regulation may be growing across party lines, but the political cost of specific provisions remains high.
A Three-Year Delay in Enforcement Could Be the Compromise
To break the deadlock, the report outlined one possible compromise: delay enforcement of the conflict-of-interest provisions by about three years. That would keep the rules from applying during the current administration and could reduce resistance in Washington.
For the crypto market, the picture stays mixed. Clearer regulation could support long-term institutional adoption and steadier market conditions. A longer timeline means firms and investors may still have to operate under regulatory uncertainty for years. In the near term, even small regulatory developments can shift sentiment. After Bitcoin’s move toward $94,000, traders began discussing a possible test of the $100,000 level later this month, though the source also notes that volatility remains high and conditions can change quickly.