Bitcoin’s consolidation near recent highs may be approaching its final stage, according to New Huo Institute, which said the market is showing signs of turnover and profit-taking absorption after August’s nearly 25% advance.
The institute said BTC climbed from about $63,000 to near $82,000, then moved into repeated trading between $78,000 and $80,500. Over the past few days, it has been consolidating in a tight range around $79,000. With volume shrinking, short-term bullish momentum has slowed, but the firm said the price action looks more like position rotation than a breakdown in the broader uptrend.
Daily structure remains intact
On the technical side, New Huo Institute said Bitcoin is still holding above key moving-average support on the daily chart, and the bullish moving-average structure remains in place.
RSI has retreated from overbought levels, while the MACD histogram has shortened, pointing to a slower near-term pace of advance. Even so, the institute said those readings are closer to a healthy technical correction after a rally than to a clear trend-reversal signal.
Inflation data and Fed meeting are the near-term macro focus
The report said this week’s U.S. inflation release and the Federal Reserve’s mid-September rate meeting are tightening the market’s focus on the path of interest rates, weighing on short-term risk appetite.
If CPI meets expectations or comes in below them, risk assets may receive additional support, the institute said. If inflation rebounds more than expected, concerns that higher rates could stay in place for longer may put pressure on Bitcoin.
ETF flows and Strategy purchases seen as support
On flows, New Huo Institute said U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to record stable net subscriptions in early September after strong inflows in August. It also said Strategy has resumed adding to its holdings.
In the institute’s view, that suggests institutional buying has not left the market, with sentiment shifting from chasing upside moves to buying on dips. As long as the macro backdrop does not deteriorate in a visible way, short-term profit-taking does not necessarily have to turn into trend-level selling, it said.
Review of the $60,000 zone
New Huo Institute said its team had been flagging the market as entering a high value zone since mid-May, and repeated that view twice on July 6 and July 13 when Bitcoin was trading around $60,000.
After that, some institution-linked on-chain capital with listed-company backgrounds and old-whale characteristics stepped in to buy heavily near $60,000, the report said. It also said New Huo Group’s OTC business posted total July trading volume up 257% from June.
The combination of whale bottom-fishing on-chain and rising OTC activity, followed by Bitcoin’s subsequent advance, supports the view that the market was shifting away from accelerated panic selling and toward longer-term chip accumulation, according to the institute.
$80,500 to $82,000 seen as the key resistance band
Looking ahead, New Huo Institute said rebounds that are backed by both institutional capital and trend confirmation do not usually end immediately after the first rejection. A more common path, it said, is for the market to move sideways to digest overbought conditions and profit-taking before resuming in the original direction.
If Bitcoin can move above the $80,500 to $82,000 resistance zone and hold there with volume support, the current move may confirm the start of a new main upward leg and open more room on the upside, the institute said.
On the other hand, if CPI comes in hotter than expected, or if Bitcoin falls below $78,000 with expanding volume, traders should watch for a longer high-level consolidation or even a deeper technical pullback.
Overall, the institute said Bitcoin remains in a high-level consolidation stage after a strong rise, with both technical structure and institutional support still in place. In its view, the current pause is more likely a necessary rotation before a continuation of the trend, and a key turning window may be close.