Bitcoin’s larger holders are shifting again, and fresh on-chain data shows a more defensive tone. CryptoQuant analyst _onchain said Bitcoin New Whales’ UPR has fallen to -0.30, a level last seen after the 2022 all-time high, though the current move has unfolded at a much slower pace.
The latest decline took more than three months to reach -0.30. In 2022, the same move happened in less than six weeks. That timing matters. Rather than signaling a sudden unwind, the current reading points to major holders trimming risk and reassessing exposure in a more measured way as price swings continue.
A slower decline than the 2022 shock
In 2022, large entities reacted quickly after the collapse of Luna and 3AC, and the market dropped hard. This time, the UPR turned negative and kept sliding, but the process has been stretched out over months. The indicator has not shown frantic distribution.
That makes the context as important as the level itself. The same -0.30 can carry a different message depending on how fast it is reached. Right now, the signal looks closer to steady repositioning and broader caution than to a capitulation event.
Price rebounded from around $65,000 to above $70,000
Spot price action has not moved in a straight bearish line. On the Bitstamp 30-minute chart cited in the report, Bitcoin first fell from the upper $69,000 area to the mid-$66,000 range, where sellers briefly controlled the tape. Buyers then stepped in and pushed the market back into the $67,000 to $68,000 zone.
When Bitcoin later dropped toward $65,000, volatility picked up and buying returned again. A sequence of higher lows followed. Price then reclaimed $69,000 and even moved above the $70,000 mark, showing that some participants still treated weakness as an entry area.
RSI nears overbought while MACD turns positive
Technical readings reflected tension during the rebound. The RSI moved close to the overbought zone during the sharper leg higher, a sign that short-term momentum had become stretched. MACD turned positive during the rally, then flattened as Bitcoin eased back.
The report said the latest pullback toward $69,400 looked more like profit-taking than a change in trend. Taken together, the on-chain data and price structure suggest a market that is cautious but not disorderly: whales are adjusting gradually, while buyers continue to defend key levels.