According to ChainCatcher, data from market platform Deribit shows a notable imbalance in the Bitcoin options market as Bitcoin continues to decline through June. Around $8.6 billion in notional value of Bitcoin options expiring this month is currently out of the money and faces the risk of expiring worthless.
Only About 20% of June 26 Open Interest Is In the Money
Deribit data indicates that roughly $10.6 billion in Bitcoin options open interest is set to expire on June 26. Of that amount, only about 20% is currently in the money, while the remaining 80% is in a losing position at present market levels. This structure leaves a large share of contracts dependent on whether Bitcoin can move back toward relevant strike prices before expiry.
The analysis cited in the report says this structural imbalance could lead to concentrated hedging adjustments by market makers and traders ahead of expiry, amplifying short-term market volatility. As expiry approaches, the distribution of positions, the concentration of strike prices and changes in hedging demand can all affect the pace of trading activity.
Max Pain Stands Near $74,000
The current max pain price is around $74,000, approximately 14% above Bitcoin’s current price of about $65,000. In theory, this level is where the largest number of options contracts would expire worthless, which may create an upward pull on price as expiry nears. However, the effectiveness of this mechanism in the crypto market remains disputed.
The options market also shows a relatively close balance between bullish and bearish structures. The put/call ratio is around 0.87, indicating increased disagreement in market sentiment. In terms of specific positioning, around $450 million is concentrated in $60,000 put options, while $80,000 call options form a key resistance area with about $406 million in positions. Analysts cited in the report believe that, as quarterly expiry approaches, concentrated exercise activity and hedging adjustments may become important drivers of short-term price volatility, leaving Bitcoin in a more intense directional decision window.