Glassnode said Bitcoin’s native options market remains relatively subdued, with implied volatility and skew continuing to compress while open positioning is increasingly concentrated around key strike levels. The firm said this is making the market’s structure easier to read.
According to the data cited by Glassnode, short-dated implied volatility has kept falling, with 1-week at-the-money implied volatility down to about 26%, while 6-month implied volatility remains around 39%. That leaves the term structure steeper, suggesting traders are assigning lower odds to near-term price swings while still pricing in uncertainty further out on the curve.
Glassnode also said demand for downside protection has eased and overall options positioning is no longer as defensive as it was previously. In gamma terms, negative gamma is concentrated in the lower $60,000 area, while positive gamma is building near $70,000. The setup suggests BTC could see larger price moves on the way down, while an approach toward $70,000 may be met with stabilizing dealer hedging flows. Even so, Glassnode said the market has not yet moved into an overly complacent state.
Glassnode said Bitcoin’s native options market is still relatively subdued, with implied volatility and skew continuing to narrow. At the same time, positioning is increasingly clustering around key strike prices, giving the market a clearer structural shape.
The data showed short-dated implied volatility continuing to fall. One-week at-the-money implied volatility has dropped to about 26%, while the 6-month tenor remains near 39%. That has made the term structure steeper, indicating that traders are pricing in less near-term price movement while still assigning value to longer-dated uncertainty.
Glassnode said demand for downside protection has weakened, and overall options positioning is no longer as defensive as it had been before.
On gamma exposure, negative gamma is mainly concentrated in the lower $60,000 area, while positive gamma is gradually concentrating around $70,000. That suggests BTC may be more vulnerable to larger price swings on the downside, while moves toward $70,000 could be moderated by market-maker hedging flows.
Glassnode added that the market’s defensive posture has eased, but it has not yet entered a state of excessive complacency. The drop in implied volatility and skew points to fading short-term fear, while the concentration of gamma and strike positioning indicates that the $60,000 to $70,000 range remains the key zone for Bitcoin’s next directional move.
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