Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on X today, pointing out that the Deribit Bitcoin index dipped to a low of $70,992, bringing the price close to the psychologically significant $70,000 round number. This level is not just a mental barrier but also the strike price with the heaviest options open interest concentration, becoming a critical battleground for bulls and bears.
Options data shows that near-term at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility (IV) is around 30%, with no extreme, panic-driven spike typically seen during market routs. This suggests the market is not pricing in a one-sided sell-off; instead, it seems to be in a wait-and-see mode before the next directional move, with both sides seeking clearer signals.
How the $70,000 Options Structure Evolved
Looking back at the market structure before last month's expiry, $72,000 was the zone of highest Gamma Exposure (GEX) concentration. After expiration, the $70,000 strike took over as the new GEX-dense area, with a notable concentration of open interest. This shift reflects a realignment of market participants' anchor point for price.
Regarding the volatility skew, put-side IV is visibly higher than call-side IV, with the overall skew trending downward. This indicates that market participants are paying a higher premium for potential downside tail risks, and demand for protective positioning remains prominent.
Two Key Scenarios Ahead
Despite short-term pressures, call walls remain densely stacked at the $80,000, $90,000, and $100,000 strikes, while longer-dated call open interest is still substantial, signaling that the medium-to-long-term bullish structure remains intact.
Adam stressed that the first priority is to hold the $70,000 line in the short run. If the level is successfully defended, the market could see IV contraction and a recovery in spot prices. Conversely, if $70,000 is breached on expanding volume, demand for protective puts may surge, pushing short-term IV higher, and Bitcoin could then test the $68,000 to $65,000 area.