The bitcoin options market is flashing strong defensive signals. A joint analysis by Anchorage Digital, covering activity on Deribit, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), and shares of Strategy (MSTR), reveals a significant tilt toward protection against downside risk.
Defensive Positioning Hits Rare Extremes on Deribit and IBIT
The report shows defensive positioning has reached the 82nd percentile in IBIT's option history and the 84th percentile over the last five years on Deribit. Investors are consistently paying premiums for puts rather than betting on upside rallies. Anchorage Digital highlights that analyzing these three markets together provides a broader view of trends among crypto-native, institutional and retail participants, compared to single-market assessment.
Implied Volatility Inversion Persists: One-Week Higher Than One-Month
Another key finding is the unusual volatility term structure in bitcoin options through 2026. For nearly half the year, one-week implied volatility has been priced higher than one-month implied volatility. While such inversions have historically been brief and occasional, this time macroeconomic, geopolitical and crypto-specific events have made the pattern more sustained. The report suggests option traders are prioritizing management of short-term uncertainties rather than making firm directional bets. According to Anchorage Digital analyst Lawant, a return of one-month IV outpacing weekly levels would imply the market has grown more comfortable looking beyond immediate risks.
MSTR Options Under Pressure But No Panic Signal
Strategy's options market reflects caution without reaching panic territory. The company's perpetual preferred share STRC fell as low as $82.53 on June 22, trading about 17% below its $100 par value. After Strategy announced cash reserves of $1.3 billion, the share partially recovered, but as of Thursday it was around $77, roughly 23% below par. Meanwhile, common stock MSTR has dropped about 78% over the past year and traded near $87 on Thursday.
Despite the weakness, the report underscores that put demand in MSTR options has not approached levels associated with forced deleveraging or fears of a broader crisis. Led by executive chairman Michael Saylor, Strategy has been an early adopter of the corporate bitcoin treasury model since 2020 and currently holds 847,363 BTC on its balance sheet.