Bitcoin options markets are flashing a rare signal: a significant number of traders are betting that BTC will reach $36,000 by December 2020, far above the previous all-time high (ATH) of around $19,600 set in late 2017. The data, shared by analytics firm Skew.com on September 14, reveals that call options with strike prices of $28,000, $32,000, and $36,000 were among the most active bitcoin options contracts on that day.
Surge in Out-of-the-Money Calls
The open positions were primarily established on the crypto derivatives platform Deribit, following the expiration of $570 million (notional) in BTC options contracts on August 28. Skew reported 752 open calls at $36k, 462 contracts at $32k, and 230 at $28k. Additionally, some short-term calls at $9,000 and $9,750 were seen for September expiry. “Without opining on the possibilities, it will be entertaining to revisit at the end of the fourth quarter,” Skew tweeted.
Bitcoin options give holders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell BTC at a predetermined price within a specified time frame. The heavy accumulation of calls far above the previous ATH indicates bullish sentiment among sophisticated traders. Deribit, which holds approximately 79% of the total BTC options open interest, has seen competition rise but remains the dominant venue.
Technical and Sentiment Analysis
Ecoinometrics, another crypto research firm, analyzed the CME Bitcoin options market and noted that calls continue to outpace puts by a ratio of 5 to 2. However, short-term put activity suggests some traders are hedging against a potential near-term dip. “From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is flipping the former $10,000 resistance into support. It has held above $10k for seven days now,” the firm said, adding that the overall bullish sentiment is intact for the longer term.
The broader market context includes an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16, the U.S. presidential election, and a weakening dollar — all factors that could drive investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge. On September 14, BTC spot prices rose over 4% to approach $11,000.
Market Activity and Outlook
Skew also highlighted that total BTC options open interest across all expiries had reached $750 million just days before the weekend, with traders gearing up for a “pretty chunky” month-end expiry. The aggressive positioning in calls suggests that despite near-term uncertainty, many traders are confident that Bitcoin will shatter its 2017 record before the year ends. However, the market must still navigate macroeconomic headwinds and potential short-term volatility.
The data underscores a growing maturity in crypto derivatives markets, where options are increasingly used for price discovery and positioning. Whether the $36k bet pans out remains to be seen, but current sentiment is undeniably bullish.