Bitcoin has moved against the broader market reaction to the war in the Middle East. Since the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the U.S. began a little over a week ago, bitcoin has climbed about 3.5% to around $68,000, according to CoinDesk data. Over the same stretch, gold has dropped roughly 5%, silver has fallen 12%, the Nasdaq 100 has slipped about 1%, and the S&P 500 is down around 1.5%.
The gap widened over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin gained more than 2.5% while U.S. equity futures stayed negative. WTI crude briefly jumped to about $116 a barrel early Monday, at one point marking a rise of roughly 60% since the conflict started. That spike eased after comments from G7 leaders on a potential oil reserve release, with crude pulling back to roughly $100 a barrel.
Dollar and Treasury yields also moved higher
The shift in markets has not been limited to crypto. The U.S. dollar strengthened, with the DXY index rising more than 1% to just above 99. Treasury yields also advanced, as the U.S. 10-year yield moved from just below 4% before the conflict to around 4.2%. Against that backdrop, bitcoin’s ability to outperform both equities and precious metals has stood out.
The rebound came after a sharp sell-off that had already cut bitcoin from its October record above $126,000 to around $60,000. Sentiment was already weak before the geopolitical shock hit. Many traders expected the decline to deepen, not reverse.
Tech correlation remains, but leverage is being cleared out
Bitcoin’s relative strength has not erased its link with technology stocks. The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF, or IGV, a closely watched software-sector benchmark, has gained about 7% since the conflict began. It rebounded from roughly $76 and closed Friday near $88.
Derivatives data points to a market that may be stabilizing. Open interest in coin-margined futures has declined, a sign that leverage is being flushed from the system. At the same time, perpetual futures funding rates remain near -3.5%. That means short sellers are paying longs, showing that bearish positioning is still crowded.
Coinbase premium returns alongside spot ETF inflows
Another signal drawing attention is the return of the Coinbase premium. The metric tracks the price gap between bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges and is often used as a proxy for U.S. institutional demand. Its reappearance, together with spot ETF inflows, suggests institutional buyers may be coming back and finding demand at levels the market had treated as oversold.