Signs of selling pressure easing are starting to show
Bitcoin has fallen 28% since the start of the year, but analysts cited by Blockcast say the months-long wave of selling appears to be slowing. Price action, exchange-traded fund flows and on-chain data all point in the same direction: panic-driven selling is losing momentum.
That does not mean a fresh bull run is here. The same analysts said the market still lacks strong spot demand, and without better buying support, Bitcoin could stay range-bound in the near term.
Bitcoin held up as geopolitical tensions rose
The first signal came from Bitcoin’s reaction to geopolitical stress. Over the weekend, tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensified, while oil prices moved higher on worries that the situation in the Middle East could worsen. Bitcoin, however, did not post a sharp drop.
Blockcast contrasted that with March and April, when rising friction between the U.S. and Iran and higher oil prices were often accompanied by weakness in Bitcoin.
Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, said Bitcoin managed to hold the $62,000 level even as the U.S. carried out airstrikes and markets worried about a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In his view, that suggests weaker hands have largely been flushed out of the market.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs broke an eight-week outflow streak
A second signal came from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to the report, the products recorded $197.4 million in net inflows last week, ending eight straight weeks of outflows.
De Maere said one week is not enough to establish a long-term trend, but it does suggest that “marginal sellers” are becoming less active. In this context, the term refers to investors still willing to sell even as prices fall and profits shrink. If that group fades, supply pressure eases as fewer holders are willing to sell at current levels.
Dessislava Ianeva, an analyst at crypto lending platform Nexo, took a similar view. She said ETF flows over the last 10 days alternated between inflows and outflows, but on balance had shifted to a small net inflow, showing sentiment had improved from recent weeks.
On-chain data showed a sharp drop in spot selling
The third signal came from on-chain data. Citing Glassnode, Ianeva said spot selling pressure had cooled noticeably.
In June, an average of 2,000 BTC was sold each day. In July, that figure fell to just 53 BTC per day, making it the calmest month of 2026 aside from April, according to the report.
Recovery in demand is still being led by derivatives
Even so, quieter selling does not automatically point to a strong upside reversal.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said Bitcoin’s rebound from its yearly low of $57,700 was driven mainly by speculative traders in derivatives rather than buyers in the spot market.
He said demand is recovering, but most of that demand is coming from retail futures trading, while spot buying remains weak. If spot liquidity does not strengthen, Bitcoin may continue moving sideways over the next few months, he said.
Markets are watching CPI and Warsh’s testimony
Investors are also waiting for macro data that could shape rate expectations and broader risk appetite. The U.S. is set to release June consumer price index data on Tuesday, which markets will use to gauge whether inflation is still cooling.
Blockcast also said Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify before Congress for the first time this week. His remarks may offer more clues on the path of interest-rate policy. Together, those two events are being treated as key tests for whether Bitcoin’s rebound can continue.