Bitcoin’s next move may depend on three key events this week, BlockBeats reported on Aug. 26: the U.S. July PCE inflation reading, Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings, and Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
BTC had risen from about $63,000 to above $80,000 before falling back below $79,000. The report added that its 14-day relative strength index, or RSI, had moved above 70, pointing to short-term overbought conditions.
PCE data is the first major test for markets
Markets expect U.S. July core PCE to increase 3.2% year over year and 0.18% month over month, compared with 3.3% and 0.13% in June. If the data comes in above expectations, it could renew worries about Federal Reserve rate hikes and put pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
CME FedWatch shows the bond market is currently assigning a nearly 38% probability to a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September.
Nvidia earnings are also in focus
Nvidia is scheduled to release its second-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. If results come in well above expectations, that could ease concerns that AI capital spending is relying on debt financing and lend support to risk assets.
The report also noted that since the start of 2025, the 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and Nvidia shares has remained above 0.5 for most of the period.
Traders are watching Warsh’s Friday speech
Traders will also watch Warsh’s remarks on Friday. The U.S. Treasury has recently planned to increase long-term Treasury buybacks to curb rising yields, a move that the market has viewed as a catalyst behind Bitcoin’s recent gains.
Market participants will be watching whether Warsh shifts from his earlier stance favoring market-based pricing and whether he expresses support for the Treasury’s related actions.