Bitcoin tumbled to $59,930 this week, marking a 32% retracement from its all-time high and its lowest level since October 2024—just before Donald Trump’s re-election. The sharp drop has reignited debate over whether the bear market has found a floor or is poised to worsen.
32% Correction Hits Lowest Since October
According to Kaiko Research, the correction indicates the market has moved past the post-halving euphoria and entered a typical bear phase, which historically lasts about 12 months before a new accumulation cycle begins. On-chain metrics show Bitcoin approaching critical technical support, raising questions about whether the four-year halving cycle will hold.
Trading activity has slumped. Aggregate spot volume across the top 10 centralized exchanges fell 30% from roughly $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November, per Kaiko. Combined open interest in Bitcoin and Ether futures also dropped 14%, signaling ongoing deleveraging.
Declining Volume and Accelerating Deleveraging
Despite the rout, some remain upbeat. Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, argues the catalysts that drove Bitcoin to $126,000 are still present, and oversold indicators suggest a bounce could be near. However, Nicolai Sondergaard of Nansen cautions that predicting whether Bitcoin will follow its usual four-year cycle is difficult. Technically, $60,000 aligns with the 200-week moving average, a historic long-term support. Yet Kaiko notes the current 52% drawdown from the peak is shallower than the 60%–68% typical of prior bear markets, implying the true bottom could lie in the $40,000 to $50,000 range. Record-low investor sentiment and an oversold RSI, however, suggest $60,000 could be a local floor.
200-Week MA Support vs Historical Retracements
All eyes are on whether $60,000 holds. A breakdown would open the door to $50,000. In the near term, macro data, ETF flows, and regulatory moves will shape Bitcoin's next move.