Bitcoin closed April with an 11.87% gain, its strongest monthly performance in the past year. According to CoinGlass, this figure falls just short of the 14.08% record set in April 2025 and the historical April average of 12.98%, but still marks a significant recovery from months of decline.
Two consecutive green monthly candles bring relief
Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin commented on X: "There's still a long way to go to reach all-time highs, but at least the board is green again." After five straight red monthly candles, Bitcoin has now posted two green closes in a row. Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted: "April is over, May has arrived. After five consecutive red monthly candles, Bitcoin has closed green two months in a row. This has provided the market with some relief."
Bitcoin started the year around $66,000 and currently trades at $78,190 — roughly 38% below its all-time high of $125,100 from last October. Analyst Jelle expects market volatility to pick up again in the coming week.
Fear & Greed Index still in 'Fear' territory
Despite the rally, the broader mood remains cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 39 on Friday, signaling "Fear." This suggests investors are still wary and risk-averse despite recent gains.
Historical data offers some perspective: CoinGlass statistics show that May has historically delivered an average return of 7.78% for Bitcoin. However, past performance is far from a reliable predictor.
Analysts divided: futures-driven rally risk vs. breakout without catalyst
Crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant warned that April's surge was primarily driven by futures traders, raising the risk of a pullback in the months ahead. In contrast, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, argued on X: "There doesn't need to be a special story to push the price higher." He believes Bitcoin could surpass the psychological $100,000 mark without any specific catalyst.
Bitcoin last traded above $100,000 on November 13, shortly after a $19 billion wave of liquidations on October 10. Whether the current structure can support a similar move remains to be seen.