According to the latest data from three major prediction markets — Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad — traders are divided on Bitcoin’s price trajectory for 2026, with a clear bias toward caution in the short term but persistent optimism at extreme levels.
Polymarket April Market: $75,000 Odds at 54%
Polymarket’s “What price will bitcoin hit in April?” market, launched on April 1, 2026, has generated $11.8 million in total trading volume. The data shows a 100% probability that Bitcoin will stay above $70,000 throughout the month, but the probability drops sharply at higher levels. A $75,000 target carries only 54% odds, while $80,000 is priced at just 15%. At the extremes, the $150,000 outcome attracted over $2.57 million in bets despite sub-1% probability, while the below-$50,000 and below-$60,000 brackets saw roughly $960,000 and $734,000 in volume respectively, with probabilities at 3% and 19%.
Polymarket Annual Market: $100K at 35%
The broader 2026 annual Bitcoin prediction market on Polymarket has logged $30.2 million in trading volume. It prices both $75,000 and $90,000 at 100% probability, with $100,000 at 35% and $110,000 at 24%. Speculative volume at the high end remains active: the $1,000,000 outcome holds a 2% probability but has seen over $647,000 in trading activity. Meanwhile, the market assigns a 68% chance that Bitcoin will dip to or below $55,000 at some point in 2026, and a 25% chance of a drop to $35,000.
Kalshi Markets: Near-Term Skepticism
Data from Kalshi adds a layer of caution. On the question of Bitcoin reaching $150,000, the market assigns only 4% probability before August 2026 and 5% before September 2026, with the January 2027 window at 9%. That contract series has generated $31.5 million in total volume. For Bitcoin crossing $100,000, the probability before July 2026 sits at 12%, before October 2026 at 22%, and before January 2027 at 36%. Sentiment for an April 2026 crossing of $100,000 is strongly negative: the “No” position trades at 99 cents, implying just 2% odds.
Myriad Market: $84k vs $55k Nearly Even
On the Myriad platform, a separate market tracks whether Bitcoin will hit $84,000 or $55,000 first. The two outcomes are nearly balanced, with the bullish case carrying a 51.6% probability and the bearish $55,000 scenario at approximately 48.4%. The contract, based on Binance spot price data and live since Feb. 5, 2026, has logged $111,000 in total volume.
Overall, the data across these platforms points to a market that accepts Bitcoin’s current price floor but assigns low odds to a breakout above six figures in the near term. Traders are hedging both directions, and significant volume at extreme outcomes suggests some participants are willing to take long-shot positions at scale. The next several months of price action will determine which probability curves get repriced.