Bitcoin has continued to lose ground, breaking below the $60,000 mark amid sustained selling pressure. The downturn is largely attributed to institutional ETF outflows, notably from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), combined with active spot market selling that has created a multi-layered supply overhang.
On-Chain Data Highlights a Potential Bottom: Realized Price at $53,400
On-chain metrics offer a framework for assessing the current price range. The realized price of Bitcoin, which calculates the aggregate cost basis of all coins based on their last on-chain movement, currently stands at approximately $53,400. Historically, during deep corrections or bear market troughs, the price tends to gravitate toward or briefly dip below the realized price, making $53,400 a key level to watch as a potential bottom zone.
Another relevant indicator is the short-term holder cost basis. Data shows that the average acquisition price for short-term holders (entities holding coins for less than 155 days) has declined to $71,400. This means recent buyers—those who entered the market in the past few months—are now underwater, as the current price of $60,000 sits well below their average entry. Yet this also signals that fresh capital has been accumulating at lower levels, rather than panic selling in bulk.
Macro Headwinds Persist: Strong Dollar and Steady Bond Yields
On the macroeconomic front, Bitcoin faces continued headwinds. The U.S. dollar index has strengthened, putting pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have held steady, maintaining the attractiveness of risk-free returns and reducing the incentive for capital to flow into high-volatility assets like Bitcoin. Taken together, the combination of institutional outflows, spot selling pressure, and a challenging macro environment suggests that Bitcoin may test lower levels before finding a stable foothold. However, the on-chain cost structure—particularly the realized price zone around $53,400—offers a data-driven reference for where buying interest could re-emerge. Traders will be watching for any shift in ETF flow dynamics and upcoming macro data releases to gauge the next directional move.