Bitcoin climbed as high as $75,500 before giving back gains and settling near $73,910, while Ether held above the $2,300 level at $2,328. Across the broader market, liquidations in crypto futures reached $253 million over the past 24 hours. Long and short liquidations were relatively balanced, matching the sideways tone seen in price action.
CryptoQuant sees a two-layer resistance zone between $75,000 and $85,000
In a report published on March 18, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said Bitcoin is running into a double resistance area between $75,000 and $85,000. The first barrier sits around $75,000, tied to the lower bound of traders’ on-chain realized price range. The second is near $85,000, where the bulk of traders’ on-chain realized price is concentrated.
Moreno said that this price band has historically acted as resistance during bear-market phases. He added that after Bitcoin rose from $80,000 to $98,000, the $85,000 area served as a clear ceiling in mid-January 2025 and again in October. That leaves the current rebound facing a visible hurdle on-chain, even if buyers attempt another push higher.
Fed decision and Powell comments are now the main market focus
The Federal Reserve is set to release its March rate decision in the early hours of Thursday, March 19. Huatai Securities expects the Fed to leave rates unchanged, cut its growth forecast, raise its inflation forecast, and keep its rate-cut guidance in the dot plot unchanged.
Traders are also watching the effect of rising oil prices as tensions in the Middle East intensify. Some investors worry that higher energy costs could add to stagflation pressure and push the Fed toward a more hawkish tone. Huatai Securities said the move in oil prices is not enough to alter the Fed’s expected rate-cut path for June and September, and sees only limited short-term impact.
Beyond the policy decision itself, markets are looking for two specific points from Chair Jerome Powell. One is his assessment of whether Middle East tensions could lift inflation. The other is whether he addresses questions tied to recent discussion of political interference and whether he intends to remain in his role. That issue is not a direct policy tool, but it could affect confidence in the Fed’s independence.
Rate-cut expectations remain restrained as crypto waits for direction
Over a longer horizon, the market is pricing in less than one rate cut from the Fed in 2026. Fed officials have kept stressing a data-dependent approach, without committing to a preset path. Barclays, for its part, expects at most one rate cut in June this year, pointing to limited room for monetary easing.
That leaves Bitcoin dealing with two constraints at once: a visible on-chain resistance zone and only modest support from macro liquidity conditions. CryptoQuant data also shows derivatives traders still lean bullish overall, yet the balanced liquidation split suggests conviction is limited. For the short term, the Fed statement and Powell’s press conference early Thursday remain the main event for confirming market direction.