Bitcoin turned in a strong third quarter, rising 44% through the Sept. 20 close. The article described it as the asset's best single-quarter performance since the powerful move seen in the fourth quarter of last year.
Using TradingView data, the report said gold gained 8.7% over the same stretch, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose 2%. Bitcoin also outperformed NVDA, which the article listed at +11%, reversing the narrative from earlier this year that AI-linked equities had overshadowed crypto.
From oversold conditions to a breakout
The report traced the rally back to oversold conditions in the first quarter. Discount buying came in, and short positions were squeezed, creating the initial push higher.
A newer catalyst, it said, arrived on Sept. 17, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission granted a five-year innovation exemption. Tagus Capital said the exemption allows compliant venues to trade tokenized U.S. stocks through automated market makers and blockchain-based liquidity pools, adding a layer of institutional confidence to the crypto market.
Back above the 50-week moving average
On the technical side, Bitcoin closed the week of Sept. 20 above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. The article framed that move as one of the key signals that a bear phase may have ended and a new bull cycle may be starting.
BTC also broke above its May high and moved past $84,000, its highest level since January. The report added that recent trading activity between $84,000 and $97,000 has been limited. If momentum holds, resistance overhead may be relatively thin, leaving room for a move toward six-digit prices.
Altcoins rise with ETH highlighted as a major beneficiary
Bitcoin was not the only large crypto asset moving higher. The article said ETH, XRP, SOL, UNI and NEAR posted third-quarter gains ranging from 40% to 150%, describing the broad move in altcoins as a typical sign that a bull market is spreading across the sector.
Tagus Capital singled out Ethereum, saying it has benefited the most from the concentrated deployment of tokenized assets. The report described ETH as the leading public blockchain for tokenized assets and said the expansion in its market capitalization has fundamental support rather than being driven only by speculation.
Analyst warns that pullbacks can still happen
The article also included a more cautious view. FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said, 「This is already a bull market, but sudden pullbacks are not uncommon. Until clear signals of positive growth appear, staying alert is necessary.」
He added that optimism around altcoins has helped lift Bitcoin, but rushing in to chase prices at this stage may not be the best approach.
What the market is watching next
The report broke the rally's logic into two parts. The first is capital flow: an oversold rebound in the third quarter, short covering, and the SEC innovation exemption together formed a dual catalyst from both technical and policy fronts. The second is structural: tokenized stocks are creating a wider chain reaction, real-world asset capital is entering the market, Ethereum is benefiting as infrastructure, and altcoin market caps are rising at the same time.
It also said this differs in nature from the fourth quarter of 2024, when the market was driven mainly through the single channel of ETFs.
Looking ahead, the article pointed to two signals. One is whether Bitcoin can hold above $84,000 for at least a week, confirming the breakout rather than a false move. The other is whether altcoin gains can remain above 40%. If altcoins rise first and then fall back while BTC stays flat, the report said that usually indicates momentum is being consumed on the retail side.
In the article's framing, the 44% gain in the third quarter may only be an opening move. The next test is whether October brings a volume-backed break above the $97,000 resistance zone.