More than 100 researchers, using AI coding agents, reduced the resource estimate for a quantum attack targeting the elliptic-curve point-addition subroutine in Bitcoin’s secp256k1 system by 86.1%, according to Cryptopolitan. The figure fell from 10.75 billion to 1.496 billion. The reported improvement applies only to a single step inside Shor’s algorithm and did not break any private keys or move funds. A full attack would still require fault-tolerant quantum hardware that does not yet exist.
The report said the gains still matter because each improvement narrows the time window available for blockchains to complete a post-quantum migration. Glassnode data cited in the report shows that about 6.04 million BTC, or 30.2% of circulating supply, could face potential quantum risk because their public keys have already been exposed on-chain. It also said Ethereum aims to become fully quantum-resistant by December 2029, while Bitcoin faces harder governance questions, including what should be done with roughly 1.7 million BTC in dormant P2PK addresses believed to be linked to Satoshi.
More than 100 researchers using AI coding agents have reduced the resource estimate for a quantum attack on the elliptic-curve point-addition subroutine in Bitcoin’s secp256k1 system by 86.1%, according to Cryptopolitan. The estimate dropped from 10.75 billion to 1.496 billion.
The reported optimization applies to only one step in Shor’s algorithm. It did not break any private keys and did not move any funds. A complete attack would still need fault-tolerant quantum hardware that does not yet exist.
Public-key exposure keeps part of the BTC supply in scope
Cryptopolitan said each efficiency gain shortens the window available for blockchains to complete a post-quantum transition. Data from Glassnode cited in the report shows that about 6.04 million BTC, equal to 30.2% of circulating supply, faces potential quantum risk because the related public keys have already been exposed on-chain.
Ethereum has a target date, while Bitcoin faces governance questions
The report said Ethereum plans to achieve full quantum resistance by December 2029. Bitcoin, by contrast, faces broader governance questions, including how to handle roughly 1.7 million BTC in dormant P2PK addresses believed to be held by Satoshi. That issue remains unresolved.
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