Bitcoin’s Realized Cap Impulse has turned positive after 93 straight days below zero, according to Odaily. The shift is being read as a reversal signal following what the report called the longest capital contraction cycle since the 2022 bear market.
The indicator measures momentum in Realized Cap and combines that with Bitcoin supply and price factors to assess whether token flows with real economic significance are expanding the market’s capital base. A move above zero does not simply reflect a higher BTC price. It points to a change in capital flows across the Bitcoin network.
The metric crossed above zero on Aug. 20
Data cited in the report show the indicator moved above the zero line on Aug. 20, when BTC was trading at about $73,000. It has remained positive for eight consecutive days.
Bitcoin has since climbed to around $78,900, up about 8% during that period. The latest reading for the indicator was 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on Aug. 26.
Past signals were followed by strong rebounds
Historical cases cited in the analysis show similar late-bear-market signals were followed by notable Bitcoin rallies. After the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% over the following year. After March 2019, it gained about 173% in 90 days. After January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days and 104% over one year.
Not a definitive cycle-bottom signal
The report also said the Realized Cap Impulse should not be treated as a definitive marker of a market bottom. Similar positive turns appeared in 2018 and early 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained uptrend afterward.
According to the analysis, a continued stay in positive territory, backed by price action, carries more weight than a one-day break above zero.