Bitcoin’s Realized Cap Impulse has turned positive after 93 straight days below zero, according to ChainCatcher, ending what it described as the longest capital contraction cycle since the 2022 bear market and flashing a reversal signal.
Metric moved above the zero line on Aug. 20
The indicator measures momentum in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap and combines that with supply and price factors to assess whether token flows with real economic significance are expanding the network’s capital base. A positive reading does not simply reflect a higher price. It also points to a shift in capital flows across the Bitcoin network.
ChainCatcher said the metric crossed above zero on Aug. 20, when BTC was trading at about $73,000, and has stayed positive for eight consecutive days. Bitcoin has since climbed to around $78,900, a gain of about 8% over that period.
Latest reading remains below the recent peak
The latest value was 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on Aug. 26.
Historical data cited in the report showed that similar late-bear-market signals were followed by notable Bitcoin rallies. After the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% over the following year. After March 2019, it gained about 173% over 90 days. After January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days and 104% over one year.
Not a guaranteed cycle-bottom signal
Still, the report said the Realized Cap Impulse should not be treated as an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar moves back into positive territory also appeared in 2018 and in early 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained advance afterward.
The analysis added that the indicator holding above zero and receiving confirmation from price action is more useful as a reference point than a single-day break above the zero line.