Bitcoin bounced after news tied to a NATO-Trump agreement lifted market sentiment. The source says the confidential arrangement appears to have prevented additional EU tariffs from being imposed in February, and the announcement helped push crypto prices higher. On January 21, Bitcoin came close to $87,000 before rebounding.
STH cost basis and 200-day average come into focus
A Turkish on-chain analyst using the name anlcnc1 said he does not expect a sharp drop in Bitcoin. Reaffirming a call first made on January 18, he argued that if Bitcoin reaches the short-term holder, or STH, cost basis, it could also meet the 200-day moving average, opening the way for a move back toward $105,000.
He pointed to STH SOPR data and said holders who did not sell around their average cost are now selling at a loss. In his view, once panic selling fades, Bitcoin can recover. He added that this setup is not unusual and has appeared in past market phases.
Three support levels define the downside map
Ali Martinez said that if the decline continues, traders should watch three major support levels: $87,094, $83,307, and $79,520. Those prices now stand out as the main areas to monitor if selling pressure resumes.
Roman Trading, described in the source as a well-known analyst expecting a negative turn, took a more bearish stance. He warned that each rally may present a shorting opportunity and said anyone worried at current levels should wait to see what happens if Bitcoin falls below $76,000.
Coinbase Premium turns deeply negative
The report also says market appetite is weakening. Buy/Sell Pressure Delta remains negative, a sign that sellers still have the upper hand. Joao Wedson shared a metric developed by Alphractal and said sentiment would only become constructive once that indicator turns positive from the red zone.
For U.S. investor activity, the article focuses on Coinbase Premium. According to anlcnc1, the metric has entered an extremely negative zone. He said similar negative readings had built up before a previous move and were treated as an opportunity by smart money, citing Strategy as an example.
At the same time, he said that if no market participant steps in to take advantage of the negative premium, selling from the U.S. side could become more damaging. Another possibility is that the premium simply needs more time to accumulate. The source adds that if Bitcoin can stay above $90,000, even without smart-money intervention, that may point to a bottom forming, though uncertainty remains elevated because of Trump's involvement.