Bitcoin rallied in early Asian trading Monday, rising from a June 25 low of $58,188 to $63,787, a 24-hour gain of 1.22%, with an intraday range of $62,436 to $63,999. The rebound from the trough is roughly 9.6%, though still below the recent peak of $65,468 on June 22. Ethereum, which hit a 14-day high of $1,798.74 on Sunday, now sits at $1,791.98, up 1.13%, trading between $1,748 and $1,808.
Short Squeeze in Full Swing: $169.7M Liquidated in 24 Hours
The recovery came with a sharp short squeeze. According to CoinGlass, total liquidations across the crypto market over the past 24 hours reached $169.7 million, with the largest single liquidation at $2.01 million. Breaking it down: in the last 12 hours, long liquidations were $18.23 million while short liquidations hit $94.39 million; in the last 4 hours, longs lost $11.04 million versus shorts’ $72.85 million. The concentrated squeeze on bearish positions was a key driver behind the bounce.
Three Catalysts: ETF Inflows, Warsh's Dovish Turn, Falling Oil
Multiple supportive factors converged: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for five consecutive sessions, led by BlackRock's IBIT; a single-day inflow of $221 million on July 2 contrasted sharply with June's record outflow of over $4.5 billion. BlackRock's newly launched staked Ethereum fund also attracted roughly $100 million on its first day, signaling growing institutional interest in Ether.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a dovish stance for the first time since taking office, stating inflation risks have cooled. The shift lowered the probability of a rate hike on Polymarket from 56% to 48%, easing policy uncertainty that had weighed on crypto sentiment.
Brent crude fell to $71 and WTI to $67, softening inflation expectations and giving risk assets breathing room. The combination of lower oil prices and the short squeeze helped sustain the upward momentum.
Altcoins Follow: SOL and XRP Turn Green
Major altcoins joined the rally. Solana traded at $82.03, up 0.97%, ranging $79.68-$82.43; it remains just shy of its 14-day high of $83.43 from July 4, but has gained over 26% since its June 25 trough of $64.90. XRP stood at $1.16, gaining 0.87%, with an intraday range of $1.1248-$1.1696, after hitting a 14-day peak of $1.18 on Sunday.
Sentiment Lagging: Price Up, Fear Stuck at 24
Despite the price recovery, the Fear & Greed Index from alternative.me still reads 24 ('Extreme Fear'), up from 23 yesterday and a low of 12 last week. The disconnect between price gains and persistent fear suggests sidelined capital has yet to re-enter, which could provide further upside potential.
In equities, the S&P 500 rose 0.49% and Nasdaq 0.40% on July 2 (US markets closed July 3 for Independence Day), with the Dow Jones hitting a new all-time high, indicating broadly positive risk appetite. However, miner Jiang Zhuoer predicts the current cycle bottom for Bitcoin could land between $42,000 and $44,000 in October-December 2026, implying substantial downside from current levels if his forecast holds.