Bitcoin closed the week ended Sept. 20 above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, a technical shift that CoinDesk said has historically appeared before some of the asset’s biggest bull runs.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $81,450. The token had gained nearly 6% over the week and 29% over the past 35 days. That rebound pushed the weekly candlestick above the 50-week average rather than merely touching it, a distinction analysts usually treat as more meaningful.
Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn described the move as a potentially important confirmation that the market’s bear phase may have run its course and that a new uptrend may be underway.
Why the weekly close matters
Bitcoin trades 24/7, but its weekly candle closes at 23:59 UTC on Sunday, and a new one opens immediately after. Analysts tend to place more weight on a daily or weekly close above a major moving average than on a brief intraday move through that level.
The 50-week moving average is the average weekly closing price over roughly the past year. In market analysis, it is commonly used as a proxy for bitcoin’s long-term trend.
During stronger advances, bitcoin usually trades above that line. During prolonged declines, rallies often fail below it. Galaxy has described the average as a kind of ceiling during major drawdowns: once bitcoin falls under it, attempts to reclaim the level have often failed until the market was closer to a more durable low.
By contrast, successful breakouts back above the line have often marked the end of bear markets and opened the way for large upside moves.
Galaxy reviewed 13 historical reclaims since 2011
Galaxy examined major bitcoin slumps since 2011 and found 13 instances in which bitcoin closed a week back above its 50-week moving average. In 11 of those cases, the market did not go on to set a new low, suggesting the worst of the decline had already passed.
CoinDesk highlighted several of the more notable examples.
After the 2011 crash
Bitcoin reclaimed the average in January 2012 after the 2011 crash. The decline was effectively over, and BTC later rallied roughly 600-fold, rising from around $2 to a then-record high near $1,200 in late 2013.
After the 2014-15 bear market
Bitcoin crossed back above the line in October 2015 following the 2014-15 bear market. It did not revisit the cycle low and later staged a roughly 100-fold rally, climbing from around $200 to a record high near $20,000 in December 2017.
After the 2018 crash
Bitcoin reclaimed the average in May 2019 after the 2018 sell-off and did not revisit its December 2018 low. From the cycle low near $3,200, BTC later rallied roughly 22-fold and reached a record high above $69,000 in November 2021.
After the 2022 market bottom
Bitcoin crossed above the average in March 2023 after the 2022 market bottom and stayed above it for more than two years. From a low near $15,500, BTC later posted a roughly eightfold rally and climbed to a record high of about $126,000 in October 2025.
CoinDesk noted that these multiples are approximate because early bitcoin price data is inconsistent. They are meant to show the scale of the rallies that followed, not to suggest that the moving-average crossover alone caused them.
History is useful, but not definitive
Past performance does not guarantee future results, and the 50-week average has also produced false signals.
Two of the 13 historical cases failed. Both came during the volatile stretch from late 2021 into early 2022, when bitcoin briefly moved back above the average before rolling over and eventually falling toward $16,000. Galaxy identified those failed reclaims as the crossovers on Dec. 26, 2021, and March 27, 2022.
The next test sits near $78,115
According to CoinDesk data, bitcoin was trading near $81,450 at the time of writing, while the 50-week moving average stood around $78,115.
If history offers a guide, the latest reclaim suggests the bear-market low may have been established near $60,000 in recent months. It also leaves open the possibility that bitcoin could continue advancing toward fresh highs.
That said, the outcome depends on whether bitcoin can hold above the moving average in the weeks ahead.