Bitcoin has recorded its first weekly close above the 50-week moving average in more than 10 months, a development that some analysts view as a possible sign that the bear market has ended. Even so, market watchers say a single weekly close is not enough on its own to confirm a new bull run.
Weekly close moves back above the 50-week average
According to TradingView data, Bitcoin closed the week at $81,159 on Coinbase on Sunday, above its 50-week moving average of $78,788. The previous weekly close above that level was on Nov. 9, 2025.
The latest reading also marks Bitcoin’s highest weekly close in four months. In an August research note, Galaxy Research head of firmwide research Alex Thorn described the 50-week moving average as a ceiling during bear markets.
Thorn wrote that in four of the five completed bear markets, once Bitcoin first broke above the 50-week moving average, the bear market bottom was definitively in. He added that reclaiming the 50-week moving average had previously served as confirmation that a bear market was over.
Analysts see a strong historical signal, but not a final verdict
Before the weekly close, Collective Shift founder Ben Simpson said on Tuesday that a Bitcoin close above the 50-week moving average would be “the last thing I need to see before I call this a bull market.” He said Bitcoin rose between 700% and 900% after moving above that level in 2017, 2020 and 2023.
Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee told Cointelegraph that the latest close added weight to the argument that Bitcoin’s recovery was already underway. In his view, previous cycles showed that reclaiming this level usually happened after the major low had formed and longer-term momentum had started to recover.
Lee also cautioned that one weekly close was not enough to confirm that Bitcoin had reached its cycle bottom. He said the key question now is whether Bitcoin can remain above the 50-week average and keep forming higher lows. He added that failed reclaims have appeared in earlier cycles, especially when the macro environment stayed difficult.
Galaxy issued a similar warning in August. The firm said the 50-week moving average has historically been a strong signal that a bear market is over, but not an infallible one. Out of 13 weekly crossings back above the 50-week moving average, two were followed by a lower low, and both of those cases took place during the 2021-2022 bear market.
Other signals remain in focus
Lee said the broader market backdrop was still stronger than it had been earlier in the year. Bitcoin has recovered sharply from its July low of $57,000, repeated liquidations have cleared leverage that had built up in the market, and there are signs that institutional demand is returning.
Not every trader is using the 50-week moving average as the main signal for a bull market call. Crypto trader Craig Cobb told Cointelegraph that he is watching $83,000 instead. He said a break of that level would mean there is no lower high on the monthly chart, which would indicate that the downtrend is no longer intact.
Cobb’s second test comes from Bitcoin’s three-month chart. Under that framework, he is looking for a run of red quarterly candles to end with a green candle, followed by a later candle that breaks above the high of that green candle.
Cobb said Bitcoin has gone through that red-to-green transition 15 times in its history. In 11 of those cases, the high of the first green candle was later broken, and all 11 of those moves eventually led to a new all-time high.
“So combine $83,000 being broken and the close of the September three-month candle, then a break of the high and I will say the bull market has begun,” Cobb said.