Bitcoin climbed back to $67,000 in recent days, but the rebound has not been backed by strong market participation. Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG Research, said momentum remains soft, while falling volumes and sideways on-chain data point to weak investor confidence. That leaves the latest advance vulnerable to fading quickly.
Peace deal headlines helped lift Bitcoin
Ruck linked the move higher to geopolitical developments. US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that a peace agreement meant to end months of tension had been reached and was set to be signed on Friday. Bitcoin accelerated after the statement, in line with a broader reaction across global markets.
Key terms of the agreement are still unclear. Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would remain open, and that the US would lift blockades on both the strait and Iranian ports. The Associated Press reported that the two sides are expected to begin a 60-day negotiation period focused on Iran’s nuclear program and possible sanctions relief.
Analysts say the rally lacks conviction
Ruck said the latest move in Bitcoin does not show enough market support to be treated as a durable recovery. He also warned that if the US-brokered peace arrangement with Iran falls apart, a fresh round of geopolitical volatility could hit markets fast. Pressure in the energy sector could then feed into sharp moves across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
The report also noted that Bitcoin has been moving more closely with broader market trends as institutional interest grows. Short-term price action is being shaped not only by crypto-specific factors, but also by global political and macroeconomic shifts.
Momentum and OBV remain negative
Swissblock said in its Monday assessment that technical indicators tied to price momentum and on-balance volume, or OBV, still show persistent weakness. Both readings remain in negative territory, a sign that buying participation has not strengthened enough to support the recovery.
Bitcoin fell below $60,000 on June 6 and recovered to $67,000 by Monday. Even so, momentum stayed at minus 1, while OBV dropped to a multi-year low of minus 1.7 million. Swissblock said a convincing recovery would require both indicators to turn positive. Until then, Bitcoin remains exposed to the risk of retesting its lows.
The firm added that classic bear market phases often begin with fading momentum, followed by OBV contraction, before prices test lower levels. That pattern remained visible early Tuesday, when Bitcoin slipped back below $66,000 after Monday’s brief jump.