Bitcoin climbed back to $70,191, while Ether rose 6.19% on the day to $2,168. The move came as markets reacted to reports that a U.S.-Iran ceasefire could take effect the same day, even as spot gold pushed above $4,700. That combination matters. Crypto and gold rising together suggests capital is not moving into a clean risk-on trade, but is still paying for uncertainty from both sides.
Crypto-linked equities also advanced in premarket trading. Coinbase gained 3.8%, Strategy added 4.2%, and Circle rose 4.5%. Bitcoin was up 4.79% on the day, reclaiming a level the market has tested repeatedly over recent months. Ether outperformed, showing a sharper short-term move in risk appetite. Prices moved fast, but the setup was not straightforward.
Ceasefire hopes lifted prices, but conviction stayed limited
Under the “Islamabad agreement” framework cited in the source material, a ceasefire would require the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, with a final agreement to be completed within 15 to 20 days. Polymarket showed a 99% probability of Trump using force and a 35% probability of a ceasefire by the end of April. Those figures sitting side by side point to a market still trading on speculation rather than confidence in a resolved outcome.
That leaves the current rally looking more like a rebound after immediate bad news faded than a structural repricing of risk. Traders appear to be removing some near-term geopolitical premium, not declaring that the broader problem has been settled.
Dimon points to oil and inflation as the bigger medium-term threat
On the same day, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon struck a much more cautious tone in his 2025 annual letter to shareholders. He said that if Iran-related tensions trigger major swings in oil prices, the result could be “more sticky inflation,” with real interest rates ending up higher than what markets are currently pricing in.
Dimon also said the U.S. economy still shows resilience, but consumer spending is starting to soften. He described the government deficits and stimulus measures that supported recent growth as borrowed momentum. That view sits on a different timeline from the ceasefire trade: one affects immediate sentiment, the other shapes medium-term macro pricing.
Bitcoin above $70,000 does not settle the direction yet
From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin’s return above $70,000 carries weight because the level has been a key test area for months. The parallel move in crypto-related stocks also points to a clearer institutional linkage. Still, gold hitting fresh highs at the same time shows that demand for protection has not disappeared.
When risk assets and safe-haven assets rise together, it often signals a market that has not picked a single direction. If the ceasefire proceeds as expected, lower oil prices and softer inflation expectations could support crypto in the short run. If talks fail, the scenario described by Dimon — surging oil, sticky inflation, and rates staying higher than expected — could move back to the center of pricing.