ChainCatcher, citing Cointelegraph, reported that analysts view Bitcoin’s recovery as tied to the success of a US-Iran peace agreement. Although Bitcoin has rebounded recently, on-chain data still points to weakness, with the move not yet supported by stronger trading volume or improving network participation indicators.
Bitcoin’s Move Above $67,000 Lacked Follow-Through
Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG Research, said that even though Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $67,000 level, “momentum remains weak, and falling trading volume and stagnant on-chain metrics suggest the rebound lacks confidence and may fade quickly.” His assessment focuses on whether the price recovery is being confirmed by activity and on-chain measures, rather than treating a single reclaimed price level as a sufficient signal of recovery.
Ruck also said that if the US-Iran ceasefire agreement breaks down, Bitcoin would face a “volatile path.” In that scenario, Bitcoin may first attract buying as a hedge asset, before broader risk aversion pushes it toward key support levels. The comment places geopolitical developments and changes in risk appetite within the same framework for assessing Bitcoin’s next move.
Swissblock Flags Negative Momentum and Low OBV
Swissblock said on Monday that Bitcoin’s price momentum and OBV indicator remain in a state of “weak momentum and low participation,” with both readings negative. The price momentum indicator stood at -1, while OBV was 1.7 million, a multi-year low. In Swissblock’s framing, these figures show that participation has not yet improved enough to confirm a stronger rebound.
Swissblock noted that in a typical bear market, momentum weakens first, followed by OBV contraction, and then a downside price breakdown. The firm added that history shows stronger recovery signals appear when both momentum and OBV turn positive. Until then, it said, “the risk of retesting lows remains.”