Retail participation in Bitcoin on Binance has fallen to its weakest level on record. Analyst Darkfost said the monthly average inflow from wallets holding less than 1 BTC dropped to just 314 BTC. That compares with roughly 1,800 BTC during the recent bear market, and about 1,200 BTC around Bitcoin’s first major top in March 2024.
Small-wallet activity has kept shrinking
Darkfost said the decline has been steady. Retail inflows were still close to 1,000 BTC in January 2024 before falling much lower. A longer historical view shows how weak current participation has become: inflows from small holders peaked near 5,400 BTC in 2018 and around 2,600 BTC in 2021. By comparison, current retail demand on Binance is far below prior cycle highs.
Some retail demand may have moved to spot ETFs
Darkfost said part of the retail market likely shifted into spot Bitcoin ETFs rather than direct ownership of BTC. That would help explain why visible on-chain and exchange activity from smaller investors has continued to fade. The data does not show that retail interest has vanished, but it does show a sharp drop in observable direct accumulation from sub-1 BTC wallets.
Heavy exchange withdrawals did not stop price weakness
At the same time, Bitcoin exchange flows showed persistent withdrawals through May. The chart showed several major negative netflow spikes between May 7 and May 15. Outflows exceeded negative $80 million multiple times and came close to negative $100 million at the deepest point, signaling aggressive transfers away from exchanges.
Price action stayed soft anyway. Bitcoin slipped from the $82,000 area to around $76,500 by May 18. There were also a few positive inflow spikes near May 11 and May 14, and those moves lined up with brief rebounds toward the $81,000 and $82,000 range.
Support sits at $76,000 to $77,000
The chart places immediate support between $76,000 and $77,000. Resistance is seen near $78,500, with stronger selling pressure around $80,000 and $82,000. Repeated exchange outflows point to continued accumulation, but short-term bearish momentum was still in control as volatility increased across the broader market.