Bitcoin has recently plunged into extreme oversold territory, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping below 30—a level not seen in years. While market sentiment is deeply bearish, multiple prominent analysts interpret this as a “positioning reset” within a continuing bull cycle rather than a trend reversal.
RSI Below 30: Historical Pattern Signals Imminent Rebound
According to research by Bittel Julien of Global Macro Investor, historical data shows that Bitcoin often stages strong recoveries after the RSI falls below 30. This technical indicator has repeatedly proven its reliability in past bull runs, such as the March 2020 COVID crash when Bitcoin rebounded from $4,000 to $64,800. Julien notes that the current RSI reading is similar to the bottom zone in May 2021 following China’s mining crackdown, after which Bitcoin surged to $69,000 within a year.
Fundstrat co-founder Thomas Lee shares the same view. In his latest report, he states: "Extreme oversold often acts as a contrarian buy signal, especially against a backdrop of abundant liquidity and loose debt conditions. We expect Bitcoin to break its previous all-time high in 2026 and potentially challenge $150,000." Lee also emphasizes that a potential Fed rate pause and global macroeconomic uncertainty could drive capital into Bitcoin as digital gold.
Whale and Institutional Moves: Short-Term Gambling, Long-Term Positioning
On-chain data reveals heightened whale activity. According to CryptoComLearn’s BTC Footprint Chart, the market is showing signs of a potential shift, with large accumulators building positions at lower levels. Meanwhile, some whales have amplified bearish bets, including a $74 million short position on Hyperliquid. This divergence between bulls and bears reflects the bottom-fishing phase.
On the institutional side, Trump Media reportedly transferred $205 million worth of Bitcoin to Crypto.com, incurring heavy losses. This move is interpreted as a stop-loss or strategic reduction, but analysts believe it won’t alter the long-term bullish narrative. Earlier, 10x Research’s Bitcoin trend model turned bearish at $76,888, but many technicians argue that prices are already ripe for a bounce.
Cycle Outlook: Liquidity Environment Supports Extended Bull
Bittel Julien points out that the current global debt cycle and central bank liquidity management could extend the Bitcoin bull market into 2026 or longer. “We are in the mid-to-late phase of a liquidity easing cycle. Bitcoin, as a liquidity-sensitive asset, tends to recover with a lag to rate expectations,” he says. He predicts that if the RSI climbs back above 50 and holds key support, Bitcoin could regain momentum in the next 6-12 months and break the $100,000 psychological barrier.
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $76,088, up 1.33% on the day. 24-hour liquidation volumes have declined, but volatility remains elevated. Analysts advise monitoring for a golden cross on the RSI and the wording of the Fed’s next rate decision.